Re: Severe Weather moving into FL Panhandle
Posted by JAC on 2/1/2011, 10:19 pm








MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0750 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN AL...SWRN GA...FL
  PANHANDLE.
 
  CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...11...
 
  VALID 020150Z - 020345Z
 
  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10...11...CONTINUES.
 
  PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION
  AREA INCLUDING WW 11.  POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS APPEARS GREATEST
  OVER WW AREA...AND DIMINISHES NWD...BUT IS NONZERO ALONG AND S OF
  WARM FRONT OUTLINED BELOW.  MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD CLEAR
  REMAINDER WW 10 BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION...AND THAT WW MAY BE
  ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
 
  01Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT JUST SW OF BOTH AUO AND
  LSF...SEWD TO BETWEEN JAX-VLD...AND MOVING NWD 10-15 KT.  MODIFIED
  RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT
  WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER REINFORCED BY
  COMBINATION OF COOLING FROM RAIN AND DIABATIC SFC HEAT
  LOSS...SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY LOW-LEVEL WAA.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE LIFTED
  PARCELS ARE ANALYZED ABOVE SFC...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH
  STG-DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MOST INTENSE CORES ASSOCIATED
  WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND -- ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT.  MORE
  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO PERSISTS ALONG PRECURSORY
  CONFLUENCE LINE ANALYZED FROM NEAR MAI AND PFN SSWWD ACROSS GULF.
  LARGE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH 200-400
  J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE 50-60 KT -- WILL SUPPORT
  CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION
  TO ANY ACTIVITY INVOF CONFLUENCE LINE.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL
  REMAIN LACK OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
  MLCAPE ONLY 200-400 J/KG IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE AND
  S OF FL/AL BORDER.  STILL...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
  OUT FARTHER N INTO PORTIONS GA/AL BORDER REGION S LGC...AND TORNADO
  POTENTIAL REMAINS NONZERO WITH QLCS OR PRECEDING CONVECTION.
  OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT E OF WW ACROSS
  SRN GA AND ERN FL PANHANDLE AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVES INTO
  WEAKER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE AND STRONGER CINH.
 
  ..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2011
 


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  620 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
         SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
         WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
         SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
         COASTAL WATERS
 
  EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY EVENING FROM 620 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CST.
 
  ISOLATED TORNADOES
  WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH
 
  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOTHAN
  ALABAMA TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.  FOR A
  COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
  UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
 
  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
 
  OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 10...
 
  DISCUSSION...SRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E
  AT 40+ KTS...WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS/LEWPS MOVE NNE ALONG IT AT A
  SOMEWHAT GREATER SPEED.  AHEAD OF THE SQLN...MORE ISOLD STORMS HAVE
  FORMED ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE AL SSW INTO THE
  GULF OF MEXICO /REF MCD 75/.  WHILE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
  REMAIN WEAK...KEVX VWP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
  SUPERCELLS...GIVEN EXISTING STORMS.  COUPLED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE
  OF INTENSE MS VLY UPR VORT...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
  ISOLD TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
 
  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
  WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
  400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
 
 
  ...CORFIDI

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Low Very Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


  SEL1
 
  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  620 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
         SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
         WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
         SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
         COASTAL WATERS
 
  EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY EVENING FROM 620 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CST.
 
  TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
  GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
  AREAS.
 
  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOTHAN
  ALABAMA TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.  FOR A
  COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
  UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
 
  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
 
  OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 10...
 
  DISCUSSION...SRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E
  AT 40+ KTS...WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS/LEWPS MOVE NNE ALONG IT AT A
  SOMEWHAT GREATER SPEED.  AHEAD OF THE SQLN...MORE ISOLD STORMS HAVE
  FORMED ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE AL SSW INTO THE
  GULF OF MEXICO /REF MCD 75/.  WHILE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
  REMAIN WEAK...KEVX VWP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
  SUPERCELLS...GIVEN EXISTING STORMS.  COUPLED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE
  OF INTENSE MS VLY UPR VORT...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
  ISOLD TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
 
  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
  WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
  400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
 
 
  ...CORFIDI

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Low Very Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

  WOUS64 KWNS 020015
  WOU1
 
  BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 11
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  620 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011
 
  TORNADO WATCH 11 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR THE
   FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
 
  ALC031-039-045-061-067-069-020500-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0011.110202T0020Z-110202T0500Z/
 
  AL
  .    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
 
  COFFEE               COVINGTON           DALE                
  GENEVA               HENRY               HOUSTON            
 
 
  FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-077-091-131-133-020500-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0011.110202T0020Z-110202T0500Z/
 
  FL
  .    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
 
  BAY                  CALHOUN             FRANKLIN            
  GADSDEN              GULF                HOLMES              
  JACKSON              LIBERTY             OKALOOSA            
  WALTON               WASHINGTON          
 
 
  GAC007-037-061-087-099-201-253-020500-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0011.110202T0020Z-110202T0500Z/
 
  GA
  .    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
 
  BAKER                CALHOUN             CLAY                
  DECATUR              EARLY               MILLER              
  SEMINOLE            
 
 
  GMZ655-750-020500-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0011.110202T0020Z-110202T0500Z/
 
  CW
 
  .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
 
  COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
 
  COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
 
  ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
 
 
 

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Low Very Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

  SAW1
  WW 11 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 020020Z - 020500Z
  AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
  15NW DHN/DOTHAN AL/ - 25WSW PFN/PANAMA CITY FL/
  ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /57SE MGM - 55SE CEW/
  HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
  MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
 
  LAT...LON 31468444 30078490 30078723 31468681
 
  THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
  COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
  FOR WOU1.
 

Watch 11 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 11

VALID 020235Z - 020340Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PNS TO
20 NE CEW TO 15 NW DHN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 78.

..EDWARDS..02/02/11

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

ALC031-045-061-067-069-020340-

AL
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COFFEE       DALE   GENEVA      
HENRY       HOUSTON  
$$


FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-077-131-133-020340-

FL
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY       CALHOUN   FRANKLIN      
GADSDEN       GULF   HOLMES      
JACKSON       LIBERTY   WALTON      
WASHINGTON      
$$


GAC007-037-061-087-099-201-253-020340-

GA
.    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAKER       CALHOUN   CLAY      
DECATUR       EARLY   MILLER      
SEMINOLE      
$$


GMZ750-020340-

CW

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 11

VALID 020130Z - 020240Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PNS TO
15 N CEW TO 25 ESE GZH TO 15 ENE GZH.

..EDWARDS..02/02/11

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

ALC031-039-045-061-067-069-020240-

AL
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COFFEE       COVINGTON   DALE      
GENEVA       HENRY   HOUSTON      
$$


FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-077-091-131-133-020240-

FL
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY       CALHOUN   FRANKLIN      
GADSDEN       GULF   HOLMES      
JACKSON       LIBERTY   OKALOOSA      
WALTON       WASHINGTON  
$$


GAC007-037-061-087-099-201-253-020240-

GA
.    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAKER       CALHOUN   CLAY      
DECATUR       EARLY   MILLER      
SEMINOLE      
$$


GMZ655-750-020240-

CW

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$


Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Low Very Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Low Very Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Note:  Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (30%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (10%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Low (20%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (<5%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (<5%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (<5%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
Mod (30%)



For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.



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Megastorm cranking up - JAC, 2/1/2011, 8:14 am
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