20% at 8am EDT on July 6th
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/6/2013, 8:00 am
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY.

2. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
144
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Mid Atlantic, extremely low latitude, yellow circle - Chris in Tampa, 7/5/2013, 10:02 pm
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