Re: Mid Atlantic, extremely low latitude, yellow circle
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/6/2013, 9:20 am
Most of the latest models from 8am were a little lower:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2013&storm=95&latestinvest=1&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1

But it is early for intensity. It seems like models like to be high at first with an invest. More guessing upfront perhaps?

Not that this will not be that strong, but the models do like to be high at first.

Some good news would be what shear SHIPS forecasts:
12Z run:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13070612AL9513_ships.txt
6Z run:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13070606AL9513_ships.txt

From:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Low shear now, but it forecasts it to get stronger later.

I noticed the BAM models are against what might normally be expected. The stronger the storm is, the more it goes west. Strong high? Not sure. BAMM and BAMD actually maybe a turn around five to seven days. More models will be available later.
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Mid Atlantic, extremely low latitude, yellow circle - Chris in Tampa, 7/5/2013, 10:02 pm
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