Based on recon alone just in, Lee is now likely near category 5 strength
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/7/2023, 8:06 pm
Two SFMR readings right after each other had 166mph and 162 mph. I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC goes to 160 mph, but they might go to just 155 mph. That's my guess.
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 165 mph
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 170 mph
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 166 mph
Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 928.0 mb
Actual pressure as measured from a dropsonde:
936mb, with 34 knots of wind slightly above the surface at 934mb level. I would say then, maybe 933mb perhaps. (Sometimes they seem to go 1mb lower per 10 knots of surface wind) In this case a wind reading was not available at the surface.
Recon:
https://hurricanecity.com/recon/
Wherever Lee goes, whether it makes landfall eventually or not, this is not an intensity it's going to make landfall at. (I'm not talking about the 130mph, I'm talking about what it now likely is) It was forecast to strengthen considerably due to extremely warm water. But people should obviously be watching along the Atlantic coastline once its path becomes clearer. It will be a dangerous rip current threat, and might be a more dangerous direct threat to some eventually, but we just don't know. But people shouldn't panic over its current intensity.
While it's in the middle of nowhere, I wouldn't be totally shocked if the NHC put out a special advisory. If not, the best track data will have the intensity sometime within the next hour. |
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In this thread:
5pm AST Thursday (Sep. 7th): Lee is now a category 4 hurricane; Additional strengthening is expected tonight -
cypresstx,
9/7/2023, 6:59 pm- Recon won't reach the center again before the 11pm advisory - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 10:44 pm
- Recon image through 10:07pm EDT - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 10:16 pm
- 9:32pm EDT dropsonde: 930mb, with 20 knots of surface wind - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 9:51 pm
- Northwest quadrant and southeast quadrant - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 9:44 pm
- 8pm EDT Thursday: Based on NHC best track data, Lee is now a 155mph hurricane; 933mb - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 8:31 pm
- Based on recon alone just in, Lee is now likely near category 5 strength - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 8:06 pm
- YouTube video from TAFB OPS - NOAA Service Account: Tropical Atlantic Marine Weather Briefing - September 7 - cypresstx, 9/7/2023, 7:21 pm
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