Re: I was just looking at recon
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/7/2023, 8:42 pm
I didn't expect it to strengthen that fast. It's a good place to do this though, out in the middle of nowhere. Hopefully after whatever it peaks at, some not as warm waters will help weaken it noticeably.
Some of the models have been nuts with the intensity with this storm. And even crazier today.
From the latest models...
NAVGEM must have an error in its interpolation (NVGI), perhaps because it strengthened so fast. Not sure how they calculate those models. They use the previous full run and interpolate it based on the current intensity I think. So if the technique were closer to just adding how much it was forecast to strengthen when it was a lot weaker, to what it was 6 hours later when it was a lot stronger, might explain why it said 226 mph. (for 0Z Friday run; 8pm EDT Thursday) So, throw that out. The NAVGEM at 18Z was 165 mph for its peak.
But even the new models, the ones that will eventually replace the HWRF and HMON at the end of the year perhaps, they're extremely intense. HFSA peaks at 205 mph. HFSB at 196 mph. But the good news, they weaken it over the next 5 days to a borderline category 3/4.
https://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2023&storm=13&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1
Just glad this is out in the middle of nowhere. It can do whatever it wants out there for the next 5 days. (but rip currents are going to be very dangerous) |
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In this thread:
5pm AST Thursday (Sep. 7th): Lee is now a category 4 hurricane; Additional strengthening is expected tonight -
cypresstx,
9/7/2023, 6:59 pm- Recon won't reach the center again before the 11pm advisory - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 10:44 pm
- Recon image through 10:07pm EDT - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 10:16 pm
- 9:32pm EDT dropsonde: 930mb, with 20 knots of surface wind - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 9:51 pm
- Northwest quadrant and southeast quadrant - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 9:44 pm
- 8pm EDT Thursday: Based on NHC best track data, Lee is now a 155mph hurricane; 933mb - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 8:31 pm
- Based on recon alone just in, Lee is now likely near category 5 strength - Chris in Tampa, 9/7/2023, 8:06 pm
- YouTube video from TAFB OPS - NOAA Service Account: Tropical Atlantic Marine Weather Briefing - September 7 - cypresstx, 9/7/2023, 7:21 pm
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