CaneTalk: Spawned by high-amp trop wave in mid-Atlantic

Spawned by high-amp trop wave in mid-Atlantic

Posted by JAC on 6/4/2009, 6:56 am

I'll buy it.

Looking at the theta-e models, this appears to be formed by the large-amplitude tropical wave that is current moving thru the mid-Atlantic.

It is currently at 40W.

Genesis looks to be in about 114 hours.

Water gets warm fast past 50W. I'll bet we'll see convection fire up then and a roll start on MIMIC-TPW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009060400&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009060400&field=850mb+Theta-E&hour=Animation

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS HIGH AMPLITUDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A LARGE
INVERTED V SIGNATURE APPARENT IN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND AN
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAXIMUM NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT. WHILE THE WAVE STRUCTURE IS WELL DEFINED...
CONVECTION IS ISOLATED MAINLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS S OF 10N.

In this thread:

early heads up for carib development - jimw, 6/4/2009, 6:30 am

Re: early heads up for carib development - Ben, 6/7/2009, 12:46 am
There's a lot of punch with this Trop Wave - JAC, 6/5/2009, 4:07 pm
- Re: There's a lot of punch with this Trop Wave - Cape_Fear_NC, 6/6/2009, 9:23 am
  - NHC's discussion this morning - JAC, 6/6/2009, 9:34 am
- NAM shows a good surface-low on Tuesday - JAC, 6/5/2009, 5:21 pm
CMC now on-board at 144 hrs - JAC, 6/5/2009, 2:02 pm
- Don't use the 850mb vorticity! - UMRSMASOrtt, 6/5/2009, 2:17 pm
  - Re: Don't use the 850mb vorticity! - JAC, 6/5/2009, 2:32 pm
    - still not a TC - UMRSMASOrtt, 6/5/2009, 6:46 pm
      - Re: still not a TC - JAC, 6/5/2009, 7:49 pm
        Re: still not a TC - Chris in Tampa, 6/5/2009, 7:57 pm
        Re: still not a TC - JAC, 6/5/2009, 8:10 pm
- Sync'd with GFS - JAC, 6/5/2009, 2:06 pm
Not yet ready to commit to that scenario - UMRSMASOrtt, 6/5/2009, 11:56 am
GFS is pushing this out a couple more days - JAC, 6/5/2009, 8:48 am
GFS makes Cuba Landfall early 6/11 as a TS - JAC, 6/4/2009, 2:30 pm
- Re: GFS makes Cuba Landfall early 6/11 as a TS - BobbiStorm, 6/5/2009, 12:01 pm
  - Re: GFS makes Cuba Landfall early 6/11 as a TS - JAC, 6/5/2009, 1:29 pm
- Forecasted track after Cuba - JAC, 6/4/2009, 3:30 pm
  - Space Shuttle launch on 13th - IndyDave, 6/4/2009, 8:53 pm
    - Re: Space Shuttle launch on 13th - JAC, 6/5/2009, 7:56 pm
      - Re: Space Shuttle launch on 13th - IndyDave, 6/5/2009, 11:03 pm
        Re: Space Shuttle launch on 13th - JAC, 6/5/2009, 11:09 pm
Re: early heads up for carib development - CX, 6/4/2009, 2:23 pm
MJO kicking in - JAC, 6/4/2009, 9:45 am
A weekend appetizer - JAC, 6/4/2009, 7:49 am
- Re: A weekend appetizer - jack ruby, 6/4/2009, 8:05 am
  - Re: A weekend appetizer - JAC, 6/4/2009, 8:15 am
Classic setup - JAC, 6/4/2009, 7:15 am
- 300mb Winds - JAC, 6/4/2009, 7:25 am
Spawned by high-amp trop wave in mid-Atlantic - JAC, 6/4/2009, 6:56 am
- Convection organizing this morning - JAC, 6/4/2009, 7:02 am
  - Embedded in good UL Moisture - JAC, 6/4/2009, 9:13 am

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