Re: Don't use the 850mb vorticity!
Posted by
JAC on 6/5/2009, 2:32 pm
I'll agree.
But the higher levels (700mb, 500mb, etc) show vorticity lessening with altitude.
To me, that is a good hint of a TC.
The models never show 925mb or surface until you see the other ones focusing on the CONUS area.
144 hours is still way out to be very reliable.
Anyway. The trop wave interacting with the TUTT is now firing convection at 20N 49W.
Shear is dropping in the Bahamas.
Could we see development from the wave as it gets on the SW side of the TUTT; maybe in the Bahamas or NE Carb.
Maybe the models missed the boat?
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In this thread:
early heads up for carib development -
jimw,
6/4/2009, 6:30 am- Re: early heads up for carib development - Ben, 6/7/2009, 12:46 am
- There's a lot of punch with this Trop Wave - JAC, 6/5/2009, 4:07 pm
- CMC now on-board at 144 hrs - JAC, 6/5/2009, 2:02 pm
- Not yet ready to commit to that scenario - UMRSMASOrtt, 6/5/2009, 11:56 am
- GFS is pushing this out a couple more days - JAC, 6/5/2009, 8:48 am
- GFS makes Cuba Landfall early 6/11 as a TS - JAC, 6/4/2009, 2:30 pm
- Re: early heads up for carib development - CX, 6/4/2009, 2:23 pm
- MJO kicking in - JAC, 6/4/2009, 9:45 am
- A weekend appetizer - JAC, 6/4/2009, 7:49 am
- Classic setup - JAC, 6/4/2009, 7:15 am
- Spawned by high-amp trop wave in mid-Atlantic - JAC, 6/4/2009, 6:56 am
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