CaneTalk: Re: GFS makes Cuba Landfall early 6/11 as a TS

Re: GFS makes Cuba Landfall early 6/11 as a TS

Posted by JAC on 6/5/2009, 1:29 pm

The big questions in my mind are:

1) Will the 20N 50W TUTT form?
2) How well does the tropical wave hold up.

WV shows the TUTT forming at 25N 60W; so, that should be OK.

The Trop-Wave doesn't look that good today.

It lost its anti-cyclone.

SAL & 92L took some foam off the top.

It is running into stronger shear and therefore firing shear-induced MCS convection as seen on IR.

It is getting close to 50W where it can take advantage of warmer water.

Will know better tomorrow.

Especially, since the new TUTT may be able to pull up high theta-e boundary-layer air and re-amplify the wave.

Here are some relavent loops from Derek's site:

In this thread:

early heads up for carib development - jimw, 6/4/2009, 6:30 am

Re: early heads up for carib development - Ben, 6/7/2009, 12:46 am
There's a lot of punch with this Trop Wave - JAC, 6/5/2009, 4:07 pm
- Re: There's a lot of punch with this Trop Wave - Cape_Fear_NC, 6/6/2009, 9:23 am
  - NHC's discussion this morning - JAC, 6/6/2009, 9:34 am
- NAM shows a good surface-low on Tuesday - JAC, 6/5/2009, 5:21 pm
CMC now on-board at 144 hrs - JAC, 6/5/2009, 2:02 pm
- Don't use the 850mb vorticity! - UMRSMASOrtt, 6/5/2009, 2:17 pm
  - Re: Don't use the 850mb vorticity! - JAC, 6/5/2009, 2:32 pm
    - still not a TC - UMRSMASOrtt, 6/5/2009, 6:46 pm
      - Re: still not a TC - JAC, 6/5/2009, 7:49 pm
        Re: still not a TC - Chris in Tampa, 6/5/2009, 7:57 pm
        Re: still not a TC - JAC, 6/5/2009, 8:10 pm
- Sync'd with GFS - JAC, 6/5/2009, 2:06 pm
Not yet ready to commit to that scenario - UMRSMASOrtt, 6/5/2009, 11:56 am
GFS is pushing this out a couple more days - JAC, 6/5/2009, 8:48 am
GFS makes Cuba Landfall early 6/11 as a TS - JAC, 6/4/2009, 2:30 pm
- Re: GFS makes Cuba Landfall early 6/11 as a TS - BobbiStorm, 6/5/2009, 12:01 pm
  - Re: GFS makes Cuba Landfall early 6/11 as a TS - JAC, 6/5/2009, 1:29 pm
- Forecasted track after Cuba - JAC, 6/4/2009, 3:30 pm
  - Space Shuttle launch on 13th - IndyDave, 6/4/2009, 8:53 pm
    - Re: Space Shuttle launch on 13th - JAC, 6/5/2009, 7:56 pm
      - Re: Space Shuttle launch on 13th - IndyDave, 6/5/2009, 11:03 pm
        Re: Space Shuttle launch on 13th - JAC, 6/5/2009, 11:09 pm
Re: early heads up for carib development - CX, 6/4/2009, 2:23 pm
MJO kicking in - JAC, 6/4/2009, 9:45 am
A weekend appetizer - JAC, 6/4/2009, 7:49 am
- Re: A weekend appetizer - jack ruby, 6/4/2009, 8:05 am
  - Re: A weekend appetizer - JAC, 6/4/2009, 8:15 am
Classic setup - JAC, 6/4/2009, 7:15 am
- 300mb Winds - JAC, 6/4/2009, 7:25 am
Spawned by high-amp trop wave in mid-Atlantic - JAC, 6/4/2009, 6:56 am
- Convection organizing this morning - JAC, 6/4/2009, 7:02 am
  - Embedded in good UL Moisture - JAC, 6/4/2009, 9:13 am

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