Re: Anti-cyclone lloking better
Posted by
Jake on 6/6/2009, 4:01 pm
My thinking is, if cyclone formation materializes in the SW Carib, it would likely form a few hundred miles SE of Puerto Cabezas. Shear zone is to strong over northern portion of the enlongated trough. However, further south the shear lessons and convection can flare up closer to the 850mb vortex and upper high which is centered over Panama. As the mid-level trough over the gulf pulls NE, it will allow the ridge to build north and let covection gather under a low shear environment.
Now that the trough has moved north over the carib/central america we should see some development of this feature. The question is, does it remain a tropical disturbance triggering heavy rains or does it form into someting stronger. I this point, I like the latter. Shear will lesson, divergence increase, deep layer moisture high and surface low pressure trough. Therefore we should see a tropical cyclone form in the coming days heading in a general northerly direction. |
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In this thread:
North of Panama -
JAC,
6/5/2009, 11:16 pm- Floater & Flare Up - Smidge of White on Funktop - JAC, 6/7/2009, 10:10 pm
- Anti-cyclone poops out - JAC, 6/7/2009, 9:31 am
- Conditions look pretty hostile right now on WV Loop - jack ruby, 6/6/2009, 9:58 pm
- Yellow Box - JAC, 6/6/2009, 5:19 pm
- Visual / WV loop - Doorman, 6/6/2009, 4:50 pm
- Anti-cyclone lloking better - JAC, 6/6/2009, 9:22 am
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