Re: Conditions look pretty hostile right now on WV Loop
Posted by
JAC on 6/6/2009, 10:43 pm
It looks like shear is too high north of 15N for even MCS's to fire.
South of 15N it is about right for MCS's to fire. As is typical of MCS's, they eventually wash themselves out. That is why you see them pulsate south of 15N
What I am looking for here is a gradual warming up of the atmosphere as the MCS's continue to fire off and on.
If that happens, that eventually will lead to a raising of the tropopause. That is heights increase at all altitudes of the troposphere. That in turn reduces shear and sets up the UL anti-cyclone.
That makes the atmosphere ripe for the development of a warm core.
A scenario I am thinking over is that the large-amp trop-wave currently moving into the east Carib, should get to this area around Tuesday.
If the convection continues during that time, shear should be reduced enough to enable TC development of the trop wave.
The thing I am watching here is cu-nimb heights.
If they increase to 50K-ft, 250mb level; that should nicely warm up the troposphere ahead of the trop-wave.
Its a waiting game right now.
|
20
In this thread:
North of Panama -
JAC,
6/5/2009, 11:16 pm- Floater & Flare Up - Smidge of White on Funktop - JAC, 6/7/2009, 10:10 pm
- Anti-cyclone poops out - JAC, 6/7/2009, 9:31 am
- Conditions look pretty hostile right now on WV Loop - jack ruby, 6/6/2009, 9:58 pm
- Re: Conditions look pretty hostile right now on WV Loop - JAC, 6/6/2009, 10:43 pm
- Yellow Box - JAC, 6/6/2009, 5:19 pm
- Visual / WV loop - Doorman, 6/6/2009, 4:50 pm
- Anti-cyclone lloking better - JAC, 6/6/2009, 9:22 am
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.