Update # 2
Posted by Mike_Doran on 8/16/2009, 6:56 pm


Really neat picture of another thunderstorm rolling off the African coast and its close proximate location to B storm.

When a storm is undergoing RI sometimes you see strong core strikes.  But there has to be a core.  In the A storm's case, sometimes when it is losing its intensity you have a situation where the capacitance goes to zero so the charges organized in the storm will short or cause strikes.  Notice how Bill doesn't have any strikes at all associated with it, but it is intensifying slowly.  



The A storm's t numbers are about what it has been most of its life. Problem is even if electrics conditions are fine if there is little moisture associated with the storm, there is little for the electrics conditions to vary. And if the A storm starts to have to fight off the conditions that a nearby storm is producing that are bigger than the organizing features of the conditions, than the storm will lose its organization.  In this case the B storm is starting to do that to the A storm instead of helping it keep organized as it had in the past couple of days.

Early today there were some low level clouds you could see to its SW in low shear moving toward the LLC.  Now those same clouds appear to be headed toward Bill's LLC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Space weather continues to be very poor.  The only thing you could argue would enhance a storm is the fact that the solar winds are very very week, about 250 km/second and going down.  Elevated xray activity just hasn't come from the new coronal hole yet--it's been more than 24 hours since the last burst.

Finally, if you look at 1915 it appears that the A storm would trek, if it survives the B storm, more south of its forecast points in the above visible loop.  Because there is a pattern that continues regardless of the baratropics, and the A storm has gone back and forth, and there is a coronal hole that is forecaste to bring elevated xray activity, I would continue to monitor the A storm.  The B storm intensifying now makes it much more likely to be a fish.

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An electrics discussion of the Atlantic twin A and B storms. - Mike_Doran, 8/16/2009, 1:33 am
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