There may be nothing new under the sun, but tonight the sun is again quiet. While it's not 1914, it may be like 1915.
And before this discussion goes two far, consider for a moment that a cat 5 has never lasted more than two or three days. And after that, pretty much, with very limited exceptions, the season is done. The nature of a capacitive atmosphere is that if it discharges, it has to be recharged again, and with such low impedences that tropical storms bring about, the potential differences decrease rapidly. Now realize that with CO2 increasing conductivities in the global electrical circuit, the quiet sun isn't going to wipe out the entire season, especially during the period of peak global lightning when CO2 from fossil fuel's conductivity impact is felt at its greatest, but big storms storms use up the potential differences. It also takes time for the oceans to recharge the CO2--so when the next storm comes along the CO2 can come out of solution in the ocean with the depressurization and roiling winds of the storm, and then affect conductivities proximate to the storm. And that's why a big storm like the one that hit China can render the region quiet for a period.
And while one region is quiet, then the other can get active--all the potential differences focus in a new region. That's what we have now. We have a rising SOI index, now for almost a week. It is the Atlantic's turn, but it won't be forever.
Now I have to make this point, because this is a good place to make it. When a thunderstorm is over land it is a powering source. When that storm is over the ocean, it generally USES power to create organizations. Ultimately it's the sun that powers the displacement currents, seperates out the charges, and the sun does some of that over the oceans too, but by and large what I am saying is true, and there is no better example of it right now, at this moment, as the 'C' storm landfalls and a thunderstorm rolls off the African coast and goes over the ocean.
Bobbi went to bed watching the A storm. But back to life it comes. Why? Because the C storm instead of being a power drain landfalls and becomes a power source. Instead of thunderstorms powering the B storm intensifying and shear coming off it that was weakeing the A storm, now that same thunderstorm itself is a low impedence pathway and uses displacement currents. The B storm stops intensifying. And A is back to life.
Now again anyone can hind cast. So it's not just to explain what is but what will be that makes this fun. So her again I have to say a few things. The C storm will become more of a source of lightning over the CONUS and the C storm is closer to the A storm. We have a set up very much like Bonnie to Charley. So what I would predict is initially Ana will survive, and track west, but at some point it's going to right turn and intensify against the models given the remnants of the C storm along the east coast causing a lot of lightning. There are also a lot of waves to come off of Africa, which will mean that the B storm will also have a displacement current source much of the time of its life.
Spaceweather is quiet now, but with a coronal hole, by the 18th it will be elevated again. It's going to get real interesting . . .
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