Re: Intellicast Loop Looks Consistent
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/3/2009, 11:50 pm
Center point and other details in the best track database can be adjusted at any time. Sometimes you see them alter things in it soon after being posted.
I know at least some of the hurricane models, perhaps most I'm not sure, are based on where the NHC says the center is. They initialize from that point. I would not think that would be the same as the global models though, but I'm not sure.
As for the LLC, that is what the NHC is following. That is what they give in the advisories. Above that and off eastward which is getting sheared off, you have that other spin, very notable on satellite imagery. That was not the low level center earlier today that the NHC follows. Recon went in and found the LLC to be the western spin. However, they didn't actually take a long look around, but I still think they went far enough to tell that was the only LLC at the time. They left early and probably will not be back until something changes with this area. I'm not sure how far down that mid/upper level spin might be at this point. It could possibly be taking over, but with the one buoy we have nearby, it has not yet all the way down to the surface:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060
It could be firing convection right over the existing LLC right now, but I have no clue what is left of it. No recon. One thing is for sure, without obs satellite imagery is seriously lacking at night with this storm. Even the NHC has had huge problems finding the center at night.
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PR radar for the mid level later:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JUA&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0Z&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=50&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=99&rainsnow=0&lightning=1 |
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Yet another freaking new COC??? -
Storm Nut,
9/3/2009, 2:14 pm Post A Reply
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