0600 CDT weather update
Posted by CypressTX on 4/30/2010, 11:27 am
a portion, anyway - from here: http://www.incidentnews.gov/entry/526420

Forecast Briefing
Center of surface high has just about centered over the western Atlantic.  Based on buoy 42040 observations , southeast(onshore) flow with winds continue at 20-25 kts and seas are gradually building. A series of surface lows will develop and move through the southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley through this weekend.  The combination of these 2 features will result in persistent southeast and then south winds, increasing to between 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts from tonight through Sunday.  In addition, expect seas to build to a peak of 9-12 feet and have a sea state of very rough during this period.  A front is expected to slowly moves towards the Gulf Coast  Sunday. This will first result in a gradual shift in wind direction to more due south. By Sunday night, wind speeds should fall into the 15 to 20 kts range. The front will slowly sag southward into the coastal waters Monday. Late Monday and into Monday night, expect winds become southwest and fall slightly to 10 to 15 knots.  This boundary will finally push completely through the coastal waters Tuesday aftn/eve. This will shift winds to west, then northwest, and finally north Tuesday night. Expect speeds to increase back to 15 to 20 kts at this time. Winds should be fairly light at 5 to 10 kts from Wednesday through the rest of next week.  
The southeast and south winds will combine with an increasing tidal range leading to coast flooding issues through this weekend.  In addition to the wind and seas forecast, expect a limited threat of rain/thunderstorm potential to increase late Friday through Tuesday. A few strong to severe storms will be possible beginning late Friday and into Saturday. These storms could produce frequent lightning and wind gusts in excess of 34 knots. As the cold front slowly moves into the area midday Sunday,  shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to increase Sunday and Monday with locally heavy rain and occasional to frequent lightning possible.  

Coastal Flooding impact
HANCOCK COUNTY-

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SLIDELL HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY.

TIDES WILL 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF
HANCOCK COUNTY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF
SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY FLOW. INUNDATION WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE
DURING THE HIGH TIDE PORTIONS OF THE DAILY TIDE CYCLE AND HIGH
TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE WILL BE AT LARGE SPRING TIDE RANGES.
THESE RANGES MAY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE AT LOW TIDES DURING
EACH NIGHT. HOWEVER...STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS MAY
PERSIST AT NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS IN THE COASTAL AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY AND SHOULD BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND.  REMAIN ALERT AND KEEP LISTENING TO YOUR
RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.


...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

.PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT RISES IN
TIDE LEVELS. TIDE LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SOUTH FLOW PERSISTS.

TIDES MAY REACH 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AT SOME LOCATIONS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW. INUNDATION WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE DURING THE HIGH
TIDE PORTIONS OF THE DAILY TIDE CYCLE.

PERSONS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL EPISODE OF
COASTAL FLOODING. BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

Forecast for the Coastal Waters from Pascagoula to the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
345 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

.TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS ROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.
PROTECTED WATERS VERY ROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET BUILDING
TO 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED WATERS ROUGH. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FEET. PROTECTED WATERS VERY ROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS VERY ROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. PROTECTED WATERS ROUGH.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. PROTECTED
WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. PROTECTED WATERS CHOPPY.


COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
345 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

.TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET BUILDING
TO 7 TO 8 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FEET BUILDING
TO 10 TO 12 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 10 TO 12
FEET.
.SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 9 TO 12 FEET. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.


Hazardous Weather Outlook
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE SET UP AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS WELL AS SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS OUT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE WILL BE AT LARGE SPRING TIDE RANGES THIS WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE UNUSUALLY HIGH WATER LEVELS THAT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS AND OTHER COASTAL LOW LYING AREAS.

MARINE...
IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND HIGH SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THAT TIME. THE LONG FETCH OF SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MATURE WAVES UP TO 12 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS.


THUNDERSTORMS...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DONALDSONVILLE TO...SLIDELL TO SAUCIER.

IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD APPROACH 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AREAS NEARING 5 INCHES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY.MOST OF THIS HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER INLAND AND NEAR SHORE AREAS.


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Who's on oil watch? - LawKat, 4/29/2010, 1:20 pm
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