Re: Official landfall with 105 mph winds, 947 mb pressure
Posted by Jake on 6/30/2010, 11:36 pm
G,

Agreed, the dynamical models were holding Alex to a strong TS / minimal hurricane. Maybe the shear caused by the displaced upper high to the west of the storm and dry mid layers was anticipated by the models, but they couldn't have not forecast such rapid increase in just a few hours. Last minute RI very hard to predict, even for the models.

I was one that held intensity through most of this storms life, but this evening it all came together with enough distance over water. The parameters were all in place during the last several hours prior to landfall, he finally mixed out all the dry slots and sealed the outer core with an expanding inner core. This aloud thr eyewall to destablize and form that solid ring of intense convection and an almost perfect environment.
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Official landfall with 105 mph winds, 947 mb pressure - Chris in Tampa, 6/30/2010, 10:00 pm
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