Re: Should the Tropical Storm Watche been issued for NYC area
Posted by
Tim_NC on 9/5/2010, 1:14 pm
Good question Fred; and my opinion is "no.' I believe a watch or warning should have been issued for mariners (coastal waters) but not for those on land. And here's why...
1) Earl's forecast track was 'high confidence'; a parabolic recurvature (no hard lefts allowed.) From three days out, almost all track error was latitudinal (due to timing); there was effectively no longitudinal error. Am I to believe this surprised the NHC?
2) What if maximum statistical longitudinal reasonable error did occur? NYC would still not have been under any gun.
Breezy, windy, rainy, or any of the regular weather terms would have sufficed for NYC. Why get people agitated by tropical terminology when surely nothing significant was expected.
Millions of dollars of business was lost along the seaboard, and who knows how many vacation plans ruined - all because tropical terminology replaced the 'sensible weather terminology' normally used in the North. The sensible thing to do would have been what they normally do in the north; issue a 'gale watch' then shift to 'gale warning' if need be; that way people would have innately known what to expect. I've never been a fan of confusing Northerners with tropical terminology unless it's absolutely necessary.
I can't emphasize this enough...Northerners are intimately familiar with 'gale' and 'storm'; terms that very effectively divide a 'tropical storm' into two parts. "Gale" = minor tropical storm, and "Storm" = major tropical storm. The terms gale and storm fully encompass the range of all tropical storms. To northerners, the term "tropical storm" is not only odd, it's terribly vague. Beyond that, I certainly have no problem with hurricane watches and warnings in the north.
3) At no time was Earl racing up the coast (like some previous storms), nor was he ever expected to. There was plenty of lead time to adjust forecasts. And do people really need two or three days notice for the outside chance of tropical storm force winds?
This is the 21st Century. "If a hurricane is anywhere near me, I must be worried" is no longer the default view.
Tim_NC |
81
In this thread:
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.