Here is an article from todays Long Island newsday
Hyping storms is really risky business
The danger, of course, is getting too complacent.
No, not from the holiday. Complacency is what these three-day weekends are about - especially this one, heralding, as it does, the de-facto end of summer. The danger comes from Exaggerated Earl, our latest overhyped hurricane.
It sure was less than had been promoted, especially around here.
PHOTOS: Hurricane Earl | Flying into the eye of Earl | Hurricanes that have impacted LI | Submit your own Earl photos
VIDEOS: Watch Earl swirl up the East Coast
But just because one storm doesn't measure up to TV expectations, that doesn't mean the next one will also be a wimp. Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia and Karl could all be ferocious hurricanes, for all we know. They could pack the wind and water and destruction Earl certainly did not.
And therein lies the central frustration in the hit-or-miss science of hurricane prediction. Therein lies the central risk, too.
To motivate people to take a storm seriously, that takes some serious alarm.
"Cone of Uncertainty!" the weather people warn us. "Category Through the Roof!"
But with each false alarm comes a deeper load of skepticism, and it turns into a trap: Unless you scare the people, they do nothing. The more you scare 'em, the less they believe you the next time.
That goes a long way to explaining why people in New Orleans, including quite a few Henicans, were so reluctant to leave five years ago as Katrina bore down. Evacuation's a hassle. After the tenth or twentieth false alarm, it's easy to say, "I'll take my chances again."
Then, the next thing you know, you're stranded at the Superdome, or you're waving from a rooftop in the Lower Ninth Ward.
The real one will come one day to Long Island. And who will believe it before it does?
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