91L Morning Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 8/1/2011, 8:17 am
The strong tropical wave / low has changed little overnight. Scattered / numerous convection has become more concentrated, but the LLC has not become better defined. The vorticity in the 850-700mb level remains elongated from east-west and the 500mb vort is now co-located (A Positive). The upper air environment has not become more favorable since this time yesterday. In addition, another strong wave has now flared up south of 91L, this is not only robbing energy, but sending southerly outflow shear and adding to less ventilation. Outflow is well established W - N and restricted E- S. This is a larger disturbance and will hinder formation until the mass goes into SA.
The disturbance on visible sat this morning shows no evidence of arcing outflows pushing away from the center, which is an indication that dry air has been replaced by a more moist environment. The disturbance is over moderate OHC levels and this will remain a positive along the track and increase further N and W.
Finally, hurricane hunters should not fined a closed circulation, no classification yet!!!. Although,the diurnal pulse has give convection a boost overnight, we still have a struggling system, as T-Numbers have decreased and pressures have risen some. Slow strengthening is in line and Emily will be born from 91L. Track should be more west and just south of PR..
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