Re: Rick from weather service San Juan
Posted by
Jake on 8/1/2011, 8:54 am
WE ARE STILL PLAYING THE WAITING GAME WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
PER NHC AT 200 AM AST...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF
MARTINIQUE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. A HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS MORNING.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE MADE AN OVERALL SOUTH AND WEST ADJUSTMENT WITH
POTENTIAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WE STILL EXPECT A VERY ACTIVE
PERIOD OF WEATHER LOCALLY BEGINNING LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HIGH POTENTIAL AND INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THUS...ALL LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND TROPICAL WEATHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY WFO SAN
JUAN AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
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91L Morning Analysis -
Jake,
8/1/2011, 8:17 am Post A Reply
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