Re: 91L Morning Analysis
Posted by
LawKat on 8/1/2011, 10:01 am
I fear stormlover is right. The models have continued to shift west, not because of some big set of atmospheric variables causing the shift, but because of practical necessity. The reason being is that this system has continued to move more W of WNW than anything else.
Once predicted by the models to miss the islands altogether to the north, the models now show this system missing Puerto Rico by 100 miles or more to the south. If it gets under the islands, I think a significant westward shift is going to occur. South Florida is already in the latest model runs' sights. The Gulf is next, if the shift continues.
The local NWS hasn't discussed this system at all, but they have discussed the upper air pattern for the next week and the models show a northerly flow along central Gulf. That is especially worrisome. The easterly flow guiding Don just days ago and keeping him from the northern Gulf will be gone and replaced with a roadway to the central Gulf region.
It IS way too early, but every hour a system fails to move any modicum of north is one more hour that it's turn will involve a landmass in the future. There is no reason for a system lacking a LLC to turn, barring significant shear and flow patterns. That's not present. The system is embedded in the E - W flow of the ITCZ, still to some degree, and that leads to the islands. While it will head past Barbados, to the north of the island, it will miss Puerto Rico to the south.
I think Emily is coming and I think she is going to be on shaky ground for a while, but everyone needs to keep an eye on this one. |
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Jake,
8/1/2011, 8:17 am Post A Reply
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