Local NWS (Puerto RIco) 3:23 pm
Posted by
ricksterpr on 8/1/2011, 3:31 pm
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE TO THE
EAST OF THE ANTILLES. 18Z ANALYSIS FROM NHC SHOWS POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL CENTER NEAR 15.3N AND 60.5W MOVING TO THE WNW OR 290 DEGS AT
18 KT. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT WHICH EXTEND AS FAR AS 60NM TO
THE NORTHEAST. 18Z EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE AND 12Z GLOBAL MODELS KEEP
THE SYSTEM ROUGHLY ABOUT 2 DEGS SOUTH OF PR TUE NIGHT. USED 12Z OP
GFS FOR WX AND WINDS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS
INTO A NAMED STORM OR NOT...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PR/USVI TUE NIGHT AND WED. SQUALLS
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY TUE AND BECOME MORE
FREQ AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
ASSUMING SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...WIND ADVISORIES AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR ALL LAND AREAS AT SOME
TIME EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN
DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING MAY ALSO BE
ISSUED FOR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. |
90
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91L Morning Analysis -
Jake,
8/1/2011, 8:17 am Post A Reply
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