Re: Chris
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/21/2019, 9:48 am
I do have to point out that the models have changed some this morning which is why the NHC probably started mentioning it at 8am EDT. I don't like to look at one single run of each beyond 5 days and make a conclusion, but I should mention that the GFS at 6Z and the Euro at 0Z this morning show a stronger storm than what the prior runs had. The immediate prior runs had nothing on the GFS and maybe a tropical depression on the Euro.

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

GFS has it passing not too far east of Cape Cod in around 10 days as a strong tropical storm, possible borderline hurricane, and making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada as a moderate to strong tropical storm.

Euro has it passing very near, to perhaps clipping, Nova Scotia, Canada as perhaps a strong tropical storm in around 9 days. Before it has it just east of Nova Scotia it has it as a borderline hurricane. It has it making landfall in Newfoundland, Canada as perhaps a moderate tropical storm in around 10 days.

Satellite:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=car&band=13&length=12

Specifically for Florida though, I wouldn't worry about it. We may or may not get more rain from it, I don't know. At this point the global models don't have it developing much until southeast or east of Cape Hatteras. Cape Hatteras region should keep a closer eye on it in case it develops before then and passes further west than what the global models have right now. Then Cape Cod and Canada will to have watch, but again, that's still rather far out to know if it will be anything up that way yet. There's no invest yet.



"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia.

1. An area of disturbed weather located over the central and
northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over
the next several days at it moves toward the Florida peninsula and
then the southeastern United States.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch"

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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Advice and question regarding next week (Aug 19 on) - karen, 8/14/2019, 8:04 pm
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