Re: Seems Like Earl was a 'Cane at Landfall, And One Death So far
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/4/2010, 11:30 pm
Some snippets from Earl bulletins are below.
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9/4 3AM ADT Bulletin:
"HURRICANE EARL"
"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 65 KNOTS... 110 TO 120 KM/H...
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 959 MB. EARL IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 24 KNOTS... 44 KM/H."
"AS FOR THE SUBJECT OF MIAMI FORECASTING 60 KNOTS AND HALIFAX
FORECASTING 65 KNOTS FOR THE STORM, WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS BASED ON THE ABNORMALLY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER
THE MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW EARL TO HOLD ONTO ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTER. AS WELL, WATER TEMPERATURES OVER WHICH THE HIGHEST
WINDS OF THE STORM WILL TRAVEL ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE BUFFERING EFFECT OF THE USUALLY COOLER
WATERS WILL BE LESS WITH THIS STORM. THUS, GUSTY WINDS,
POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE, COULD OVERSPREAD NOVA SCOTIA WITH
THE WIND FLOW OFF THE WATER FROM THE SOUTH."
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9/4 6AM ADT Bulletin:
"HURRICANE EARL"
"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120
KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB."
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9/4 9AM ADT Bulletin:
"HURRICANE EARL"
"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB. EARL IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 KNOTS... 52 KM/H."
"EARLIER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE SHOWED WINDS BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH ALTHOUGH THE STORM RETAINS A CLEAR SATELLITE EYE SIGNATURE.
IR GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A REORGANIZATION OFF THE CORE WITH AN EYE.
COMPOSITE RADAR HAS CAPTURED A CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.
BUOY B44024 REPORTED 54 KTS AT 10Z WITH MSLP 969 MB WITH PRESSURE
DROPPING RAPIDLY. 11Z REPORT FROM B44024 SHOWED STORM CENTRE JUST
PASSING THE BUOY IN THE PREVIOUS HOUR WITH A PRESSURE REPORT OF
967 MB AND 50 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS ... SO WE FIX MSLP OF EARL AT 965
MB. BUOY B44150 REPORTED 11Z MAX WINDS OF 50 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH
SATELLITE INTERPRETATION PROVIDES OUR RATIONALE FOR MAINTAINING
EARL AS A MARGINAL HURRICANE."
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9/4 11:49AM ADT Bulletin:
"TROPICAL STORM EARL"
"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS... 111 KM/H AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 960 MB.
EARL IS NOW A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WHICH BEGAN THE TRANSITION TO
A POST-TROPICAL STORM IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS."
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9/4 2:35PM ADT Bulletin:
"TROPICAL STORM EARL"
"EARL MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRRICANE IN NOVA SCOTIA
NEAR THE SHELBURNE QUEENS COUNTIES BOUNDARY ... ABOUT 85 KM
SOUTHWEST OF LUNENBURG ... AROUND 10:30 AM ADT.
PEAK WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WERE RECEIVED FROM NUMEROUS OBSERVING
SITES WITHIN THE HALIFAX REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY AND HARBOUR WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 130 KM/H REPORTED FROM MCNABS ISLAND. BEAVER ISLAND
REPORTED 135 KM/H PEAK WINDS AT 1PM ADT. HALIFAX INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT GUSTED TO 120 KM/H FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE HOURS. NS POWER
REPORTED WELL OVER ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND CUSTOMERS LOST POWER."
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9/4 5:50PM ADT Bulletin:
"PEAK WINDS OVER 100 KM/H UP TO 5PM ADT ...
KM/H
BEAVER ISLAND 135
MCNABS ISLAND 130
OBSBORNE HEAD 128
HALIFAX HARBOUR BUOY 122
HALIFAX AIRPORT 120
WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE BUOY 119
SHEARWATER JETTY 117
BEDFORD BASIN 115
ST. PAUL ISLAND 113
LUNENBURG 111
ANTIGONISH HARBOUR 110
HALIFAX DOCKYARD 109
HART ISLAND 109
CARIBOU POINT 108
GRAND ETANG 115
BACCARO POINT 102
PORT HAWKESBURY 100
BROWNS BANK BUOY 100"
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Beaver Island Hourly Obs from the link above...
Date / Time (ADT) Wind(knots)
17:00 SW 50 gust 61
16:00 SSW 52 gust 64
15:00 SSW 56 gust 66
14:00 S 54 gust 66
13:00 S 56 gust 65
12:00 SE 52 gust 64
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The CHC (Canadian Hurricane Centre) says the highest gust recorded was 135 km/h which equals 72.9 knots. Around the peak, the hourly obs indicate sustained winds were mostly around 9 to 12 knots lower than the gusts.
If we were to assume that when the 135 km/h gust was recorded the sustained winds were 9 to 12 knots less, then we would get a range of around 60.9 to 63.9 knots as the sustained wind. So, it was probably real close. Closer than I thought it would be. So there could have been 1 minute sustained hurricane force winds somewhere where there was not a station. (But clearly not widespread, maybe in a tiny area for just a moment over water.)
The island is further away from the center that I thought it would be too. It was about 150 miles from the landfall point. I don't know how high or the exact location to know the elevation, but it would appear to be at sea level. Found this about a light house there. Maybe that is where the weather station is.
I do find Canada's advisories confusing. They seem like they use the scale we do, but then they don't seem to think the scale is that great up there:
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=AB062B74-1
"Note: this scale is intended to be used in southern latitudes and has not proven to be that useful for Canada. For example, during Hurricane Juan (2003), the scale was not very helpful because the winds were marginal Category 2 strength yet the damage to trees was at the Category 3 level."
It does seem like they like to use gusts even though they seem to use our standard too:
"Surface winds reported in tropical cyclones follow an international standard: they are maximum sustained winds averaged over 1 minute, taken at the 10-m level (33 feet) above the surface away from buildings, structures and friction of the ground." |
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