Another Possible Severe Event Around May 10 thru 12
Posted by JAC on 5/3/2011, 7:13 am
GFS and EURO both showing a digging UL trough coming into the West Coast and moving east.

A deep surface low could phase with it advecting GOM moisture into the Plains.

By the looks of it at this point, could go negative tilt as it swings into the Plains and pushes east.

Stay tuned.


PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
430 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011

VALID 12Z SAT MAY 07 2011 - 12Z TUE MAY 10 2011


THE CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 3 IS FCST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA AS VARIOUS WEAKER IMPULSES UNDERCUT
THE SYSTEM FROM THE MIDWEST EASTWARD.  HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION AFTER DAY 5.  IN THE
WEST...00Z MODELS AND ENS MEAN SOLNS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
IN SUPPORTING A STRONG TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
AFTER DAY 5.  THE ECMWF AND CMC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WRN
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN
OFFER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLNS.  LARGELY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/CMC SFC
PATTERN.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A DEEP AND SLOW
MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAYS 6-7.

HEDGE
















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Another Possible Severe Event Around May 10 thru 12 - JAC, 5/3/2011, 7:13 am
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