Threat increases Tuesday
Posted by JAC on 5/5/2011, 5:11 am


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
  ACUS48 KWNS 050900
  SPC AC 050900
 
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0400 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
 
  VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
  FORECAST MODELS AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
  AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN/D4 IN DIGGING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
  WRN STATES...AND MOVING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CNTRL
  PLAINS EWD TO THE MS RIVER BY 00Z MON. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW PRESSURE
  WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND SLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
  BRING MID TO UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO OK AND SRN KS
  E OF A DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING AND MIXING W OF THE DRYLINE BENEATH
  WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS AND A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
  PROFILE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
  HAIL...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH
  T/TD SPREADS MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.
  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE GREATER WITH EWD
  EXTENT...CAPPING WILL BE A PROBLEM.  STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
  SLOW...SO EXPECT STORMS TO AFFECT A RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED AREA
  BEFORE DYING BY LATE EVENING.
 
  ON MON/D5...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR
  PATTERN AS THE TROUGH SINKS SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LOW PRESSURE
  WILL AGAIN DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW
  PERSISTING.  WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT APPEARS MORE DRYLINE STORMS
  WILL OCCUR...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
 
  BY TUE/D6 INTO WED/D7...FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME
  INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS AND BEGINS
  MOVING EWD. ALSO AT THIS TIME...A SUBTROPICAL JET IS EXPECTED TO
  MOVE NWD AND PHASE WITH THE MAIN TROUGH...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
  WIND PROFILES. ALL THE WHILE...A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
  CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VEERING SHEAR
  PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS EACH DAY. TUE AND WED APPEAR TO HAVE A
  GREATER TORNADO THREAT THAN ON SUN/MON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND
  BETTER HODOGRAPHS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
  ON TUE WHEN A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE IS FORECAST TO
  OCCUR DURING THE EVENING.
 
  GIVEN SOME SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TROUGH ON D7...WILL
  DEFER ON ADDING ANY ADDITIONAL AREAS.
 
  ..JEWELL.. 05/05/2011
53
In this thread:
Another Possible Severe Event Around May 10 thru 12 - JAC, 5/3/2011, 7:13 am
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