Highest Threat on Wednesday 5/11
Posted by JAC on 5/6/2011, 7:33 am


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011
 
  VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
  UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN THE
  MEDIUM RANGE AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS AND THEN BEGINS TO
  EJECT ENE INTO THE PLAINS BY TUE AND WED.  AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO
  THE GREAT BASIN...SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A VERY
  STRONG EML ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.  AT THE SAME
  TIME...THERE WILL BE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
  PLAINS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
  DRYLINE TSTM INITIATION IS COMPARATIVELY MORE UNCERTAIN ON MONDAY
  AFTN THAN ON SUNDAY AS MID-LEVELS FURTHER WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE
  DIGGING IMPULSE INTO THE DESERT SW.  MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENTS
  APPEAR LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND...PARTICULARILY...ON WEDNESDAY /DAY 5
  AND 6/ AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM BODILY MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.
  THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN INCREASINGLY LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND
  BUOYANCY...YIELDING THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
 
  BEYOND DAY 6...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A INCREASING SPREAD
  ON THE HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE
  MIDWEST AND NERN STATES.  THIS RENDERS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
  RANGE PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE SVR WEATHER AREAS.
 
  ..RACY.. 05/06/2011
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In this thread:
Another Possible Severe Event Around May 10 thru 12 - JAC, 5/3/2011, 7:13 am
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