Its all there: Sub-Trop Impulse, Lee Low, Negative Tilt
Posted by
JAC on 5/9/2011, 6:03 am

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2011 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY/MIDWEST... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AS PRIMARY PORTION OF THE WRN STATES UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT AS A NEGATIVE-TILT ENTITY INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. ACCOMPANYING LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SE CO INTO NCNTRL KS DURING THE AFTN AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO CNTRL KS...WRN OK AND ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IN TX. 60S SFC DEW POINTS AND 7-8.5 DEG C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM CNTRL TX NWD TO THE NCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB BORDER. THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT SUGGEST THAT A LEAD SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE MAY AID IN THE INITIATION OF TSTMS ACROSS NCNTRL TX INTO SERN OK DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS IT IS UNCLEAR ON EXACTLY WHAT INITIATING BOUNDARY MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THIS INITIATION. THIS POSSIBILITY WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED AND WAS INCLUDED IN 15% SVR PROBS SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. MEANWHILE...AS MID-LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT TIED TO THE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...COMBINATION OF HEATING AND ERODING CAP WILL LEAD TO TSTM INITIATION NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN/CNTRL KS SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO CNTRL TX BY MID-LATE AFTN. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DMGG WINDS. STRONGER ASCENT WILL SPREAD ENE ACROSS KS/NEB AND TOWARD IA/NW MO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY SUPPORT ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR STORMS. ADDITIONAL LONGER-LIVED TSTMS WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN TX WITH SIMILAR THREATS FOR HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. ...CORN BELT/UPPER MIDWEST... A BRANCH OF THE SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF AN EJECTING IMPULSE OVER NWRN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY ALREADY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WRN PERIPHERY OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO THRIVE ALONG EDGE OF THE CAP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE LACKING AS REGION BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING ONTARIO IMPULSE AND UPPER LOW EJECTING INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. ..RACY.. 05/09/2011 |
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In this thread:
Another Possible Severe Event Around May 10 thru 12 -
JAC,
5/3/2011, 7:13 am- SPC puts Moderate Risk for Wednesday - JAC, 5/10/2011, 5:15 am
- Highest Threat on Wednesday 5/11 - JAC, 5/6/2011, 7:33 am
- Its all there: Sub-Trop Impulse, Lee Low, Negative Tilt - JAC, 5/9/2011, 6:03 am
- 5/11/11 is an interesting date - JAC, 5/8/2011, 12:57 pm
- Watch mid afternoon, mid OK - JAC, 5/6/2011, 2:04 pm
- GFS Spins Up a TX Hooker Wednesday - JAC, 5/6/2011, 7:43 am
- Mid next week? - JAC, 5/5/2011, 6:50 am
- PV - JAC, 5/5/2011, 7:12 am
- Stationary Dryline - JAC, 5/5/2011, 6:34 am
- Threat increases Tuesday - JAC, 5/5/2011, 5:11 am
- Moderate to Severe Thunderstorms OK & AR Saturday Afternoon - JAC, 5/4/2011, 1:55 pm
- Todays EURO - JAC, 5/4/2011, 12:46 pm
- Latest SPC Discussion places threat May 8 thru 10 - JAC, 5/4/2011, 9:44 am
- 12Z FIM showing a slow moving 3 day event. Mid Plains and Ohio Valley - JAC, 5/3/2011, 4:07 pm
- Theta-E Feed - JAC, 5/3/2011, 8:00 am
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