Latest SPC Discussion places threat May 8 thru 10
Posted by
JAC on 5/4/2011, 9:44 am
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040759 SPC AC 040759 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011 VALID 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... MODELS DEPICT A WNWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON SAT/D4 WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY EWD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. BY THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEGUN TO RETURN NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL/IND...SHIFTING EWD AS A LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. SEVERITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED TO...PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. BY SUN/D5...THERE IS STRONG EVIDENCE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH AN 80+ KT MID LEVEL JET DIGGING SWD ALONG THE W COAST. THE BOUQUET OF MREF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON D5 WITH HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR S THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND ALSO WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER NEB/IA/MO/IL OVERNIGHT WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH THESE AREAS HAVE POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE AREAS WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MON/D6 TO WED/D8...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH...AND/OR PIECES OF THE TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE REGION. SEVERE AREAS BEGINNING SUN/MAY 8TH AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MAY 10TH ARE LIKELY FORTHCOMING FOR MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE EVENT NEARS AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASES. ..JEWELL.. 05/04/2011
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In this thread:
Another Possible Severe Event Around May 10 thru 12 -
JAC,
5/3/2011, 7:13 am- SPC puts Moderate Risk for Wednesday - JAC, 5/10/2011, 5:15 am
- Highest Threat on Wednesday 5/11 - JAC, 5/6/2011, 7:33 am
- Its all there: Sub-Trop Impulse, Lee Low, Negative Tilt - JAC, 5/9/2011, 6:03 am
- 5/11/11 is an interesting date - JAC, 5/8/2011, 12:57 pm
- Watch mid afternoon, mid OK - JAC, 5/6/2011, 2:04 pm
- GFS Spins Up a TX Hooker Wednesday - JAC, 5/6/2011, 7:43 am
- Mid next week? - JAC, 5/5/2011, 6:50 am
- PV - JAC, 5/5/2011, 7:12 am
- Stationary Dryline - JAC, 5/5/2011, 6:34 am
- Threat increases Tuesday - JAC, 5/5/2011, 5:11 am
- Moderate to Severe Thunderstorms OK & AR Saturday Afternoon - JAC, 5/4/2011, 1:55 pm
- Todays EURO - JAC, 5/4/2011, 12:46 pm
- Latest SPC Discussion places threat May 8 thru 10 - JAC, 5/4/2011, 9:44 am
- 12Z FIM showing a slow moving 3 day event. Mid Plains and Ohio Valley - JAC, 5/3/2011, 4:07 pm
- Theta-E Feed - JAC, 5/3/2011, 8:00 am
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