Latest SPC Discussion places threat May 8 thru 10
Posted by JAC on 5/4/2011, 9:44 am
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
  ACUS48 KWNS 040759
  SPC AC 040759
 
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0259 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011
 
  VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
  MODELS DEPICT A WNWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE MID
  ATLANTIC ON SAT/D4 WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING
  QUICKLY EWD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. BY
  THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEGUN TO RETURN NWD FROM
  THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
  BE ONGOING SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL/IND...SHIFTING EWD
  AS A LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. SEVERITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON
  THE STRENGTH OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED
  TO...PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.
 
  BY SUN/D5...THERE IS STRONG EVIDENCE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL
  BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH AN 80+ KT MID LEVEL
  JET DIGGING SWD ALONG THE W COAST. THE BOUQUET OF MREF SOLUTIONS AS
  WELL AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON D5 WITH HOW
  QUICKLY AND HOW FAR S THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL HAVE AN
  IMPACT ON THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN/CNTRL
  HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND
  ALSO WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER NEB/IA/MO/IL
  OVERNIGHT WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH THESE AREAS HAVE
  POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE AREAS WITH SUCH
  UNCERTAINTY.
 
  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MON/D6 TO WED/D8...THERE WILL LIKELY
  BE A SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
  PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
  ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH...AND/OR PIECES OF
  THE TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE REGION.
 
  SEVERE AREAS BEGINNING SUN/MAY 8TH AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MAY
  10TH ARE LIKELY FORTHCOMING FOR MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE EVENT
  NEARS AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
 
  ..JEWELL.. 05/04/2011
57
In this thread:
Another Possible Severe Event Around May 10 thru 12 - JAC, 5/3/2011, 7:13 am
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