Re: Possible Louisiana Landfall in 120 hours.
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/4/2017, 1:56 pm
That's why the NHC discussions are always nice.

"Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental
conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression.  A
large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid
intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or
southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm
and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the
depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America.  The
official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the
high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based
tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast."

Low shear. They mention rapid intensification possibility along with the deep warm waters. They're already talking about the intensity forecast might be too low just based on the GFS, let alone normal difficulties with intensity.

I think people should definitely be on the lookout for a major hurricane along the Gulf coast. We'll know more after we see what kind of shape it is in after exiting Honduras. NW Carib is where Wilma strengthened rapidly in 2005 and the water is even warmer now. I don't know how the atmosphere compares though. The question mark is "although it remains to be seen how separate the depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America".

I'm reminded by this tweet again:

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/912803008718700544


Images from:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

Saved images below.

What Wilma was working with:



Currently:



It takes more than warm water of course, but I don't know much about the other stuff. I'm just looking at that and it's hard to ignore if the storm moves over it well organized.
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Calm Before the Next Atlantic Storm? - cypresstx, 10/3/2017, 4:16 pm
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