The SW Gulf disturbance, 99L, I think waited too late to start trying to develop. Those systems can develop fast down there, but I think a hurricane is very unlikely as conditions are not extremely favorable right now.
As for 98L in the central Atlantic, there will be moderate shear throughout and it looks like it will be gaining latitude. And then there is dry air as well. Even the NHC says "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY UNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS".
As for the one hidden circle over Africa, medium in the five day range, lets face it, they have not had luck lately with forecasting those. If anything, it would probably be beyond five days, and only then if it got a lot further west. I think it would be beyond a week, at least.
Gabrielle itself has probably had it, as for simply existing, even in the long term which is not very long.
As for Gabrielle's other half, things are not that great and don't get any better I don't think. Shear and gaining latitude.
So... I think we're going to do it. There are things all over the ATWO map, but I think we're going to make it past the peak and make it to September 12th. There is really nothing else out there, unless something really surprises, that I think would make it to hurricane status. |