Re: Hold the phone ......
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/10/2013, 6:28 pm
I'm holding that phone tight, but it's those darn satellite intensity estimates. I say we hold off until recon, lol. Either that or until about 12, to preferably 18 hours. Whichever comes first.

The IR convection looks absolutely horrid. However, it almost looks like a naked ring around the center right now.

It is hard to believe that they could possibly upgrade it to a hurricane based on its current look on IR. I couldn't believe they led off the discussion with this:

"ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
HAS BEEN EXPANDING WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION."

My emphasis on "a bit". It is a lot more than a bit, then again that was probably written over two to three hours ago.

Satellite:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL092013
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=09L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

But you have this from the NHC discussion:

"DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T3.5/55 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 60 KT."

Thank you SAB!

We don't want 4's:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Satellite intensity estimates:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

ADT:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html

ASCAT and other wind products by satellite:
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php

At least they are not going by digital Dvorak (and other wind products there too):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL092013

Microwave passes:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mipositions.html
And then find the image at NRL:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Here is the funny part. If it had not been for considerable shear, Gabrielle would have come out of nowhere today and been the hurricane.
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Latest hurricane formations - LawKat, 8/17/2013, 5:32 pm
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