Re: Holding today's count until after 11PM advisory ......
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/9/2013, 6:03 pm
Message modified by board administrator on 9/9/2013, 7:32 pm
Here is the big problem with making the record at this point. What is the actual wind? If the NHC goes with satellite intensity estimates they might overestimate the strength. (5 knots matters here!) I wish we had recon, lol. (Less threat to land right now than any other storm could probably ever be and so far from where the Air Force or NOAA could ever fly, but I want recon! NASA, send in some dropsondes! Unfortunately not scheduled for this storm, only for the remnants of Gabrielle tomorrow for research.)

As you can tell, I really want that record to be broken for the satellite era!

There has been some shear. This morning's visible did not look that great, but it has been more organized today. The size is good and bad. Good, in that it takes longer to develop. Bad, in that shear is not as big of a problem perhaps as if it were a tiny system subject to more fluctuations in intensity.

Satellite:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?basin=atlantic&sname=09L&invest=NO&zoom=2&img=6&vars=1101100000000000000000000&loop=1&llval=
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL092013

Visible satellite before we lost if for the night:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=al092013
Center was still on the edge earlier, but convection appeared to be building near it at the end.

SHIPS intensity output for 2pm EDT on Monday. A tad bullish...


                   *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                   * GOES PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE       *
                   *    HUMBERTO  AL092013  09/09/13  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    51    58    66    73    87    97   100   100    94    83    69    58
V (KT) LAND       45    51    58    66    73    87    97   100   100    94    83    69    58
V (KT) LGE mod    45    50    56    61    67    79    85    83    77    70    62    55    51
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    10     7     6     5     3    12    16    21    27    32    38    41
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     4     2     2     1    -2     0    -2    -1     3     2     1     2    -1
SHEAR DIR         65    63    60    56    81   158   172   192   216   237   244   249   239
SST (C)         28.2  28.0  27.9  27.8  27.6  26.8  25.8  25.5  25.3  25.2  25.2  25.6  26.1
POT. INT. (KT)   140   136   135   133   130   122   112   109   107   105   105   110   115
ADJ. POT. INT.   137   132   129   127   123   115   105   101    97    94    93    99   104
200 MB T (C)   -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     7     7     7     7     6     6     6     6     6     6     6
700-500 MB RH     79    77    74    73    73    71    69    63    51    37    30    25    23
GFS VTEX (KT)     22    23    26    28    29    32    36    35    34    32    29    24    19
850 MB ENV VOR   130   139   132   145   146   139   153   149   142   104    89    83    67
200 MB DIV        85    76    92    95   102    97   128   118   127    46    -7   -19     9
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0     0     2     5     7    11    12    11     7    16
LAND (KM)        808   899   993  1075  1160  1251  1346  1363  1396  1457  1542  1734  2000
LAT (DEG N)     13.6  13.9  14.1  14.5  14.8  16.2  18.3  20.4  22.3  23.8  24.9  25.6  26.1
LONG(DEG W)     24.9  25.8  26.7  27.5  28.3  29.1  29.6  30.1  30.5  31.0  31.7  33.5  36.1
STM SPEED (KT)    10     9     9     8     8    10    11    10     9     7     7    10    12
HEAT CONTENT      16    14    12    10     9     5     1     0     0     0     0     0     1

 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  1
 T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  410  (MEAN=624)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  77.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
 SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.   8.   7.   6.   6.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   7.   7.   7.   5.   1.  -2.  -6.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   6.   6.   5.   5.   4.   4.   4.
 PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.
 200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10. -11. -13.
 700-500 MB RH          0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
 GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   3.   4.   8.  12.  12.  10.   7.   5.  -1.  -5.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.  10.  10.  11.  12.  11.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   7.   5.   4.   3.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   4.   3.   2.   2.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   1.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           6.  13.  21.  28.  42.  52.  55.  55.  49.  38.  24.  13.

  ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013   HUMBERTO 09/09/13  18 UTC **
          ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.1 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  80.4 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  84.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  12.2 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
D200 (10**7s-1)       :  90.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013   HUMBERTO 09/09/2013  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       4(  4)      10( 14)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       1(  1)       0(  1)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
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Latest hurricane formations - LawKat, 8/17/2013, 5:32 pm
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