Re: was just thinking that Chris
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/10/2013, 10:39 pm
The core does look good despite the dry air inbetween bands. Dry air and/or shear needs to assist. Shear is not much of a problem at the moment and doesn't look like that will be any issue in the very short term.

I just took another look at the imagery and it updated another hour. It was not an eye, but a dry slot. However, convection is still building. But given that it was not an eye, maybe that will buy a little more time. Maybe. We'll have to see how that rotates around the storm.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?basin=atlantic&sname=09L&invest=NO&zoom=2&img=4&vars=1100000000000000000000000&loop=1&llval=



Tuesday 8pm SHIPS intensity output:


                   *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                   * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                   *    HUMBERTO  AL092013  09/11/13  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    60    64    69    73    76    79    77    70    59    48    39    33    31
V (KT) LAND       60    64    69    73    76    79    77    70    59    48    39    33    31
V (KT) LGE mod    60    64    68    71    74    75    71    64    57    52    48    45    43
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11     6     2     7     9    16    18    19    28    29    30    30    31
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -4    -3    -1     0    -1     5     9     4     0     5     4     2
SHEAR DIR        358   359    63   143   171   199   234   238   243   249   239   250   248
SST (C)         27.5  27.1  26.6  26.2  25.8  25.4  25.2  25.3  25.5  25.9  26.2  26.5  26.7
POT. INT. (KT)   129   124   119   115   112   108   106   106   109   114   117   119   121
ADJ. POT. INT.   120   116   112   108   104    99    96    95    97   103   107   109   110
200 MB T (C)   -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     7     7     8
700-500 MB RH     68    70    72    74    71    63    53    46    40    38    38    43    47
GFS VTEX (KT)     27    27    28    29    29    31    30    28    23    18    15    12    11
850 MB ENV VOR   129   113   120   126   125   122   102    73    56    43    33    20    19
200 MB DIV        60    47    62    99   128   110    54   -10   -33   -28    -4    -2     9
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     3     6     9     9     9     0     0    -6    -2    -4
LAND (KM)       1159  1194  1234  1262  1298  1301  1338  1433  1581  1806  2109  2394  2403
LAT (DEG N)     15.1  15.8  16.5  17.5  18.4  20.4  22.1  23.4  24.1  24.3  24.2  24.2  24.4
LONG(DEG W)     28.3  28.6  28.9  29.0  29.1  29.5  29.9  30.8  32.2  34.4  37.4  40.2  42.6
STM SPEED (KT)     6     8     9    10    10    10     8     7     8    12    13    12    11
HEAT CONTENT       5     4     3     3     0     0     0     0     0     0     2     3     3

 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/  6      CX,CY:  -3/  4
 T-12 MAX WIND:  55            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  594  (MEAN=624)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  11.2 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  98.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
 SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   0.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9. -10. -10.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   1.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -7.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.
 PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10. -11. -12.
 700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
 GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   1.   1.   3.   2.   0.  -6. -10. -14. -16. -17.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.   6.   6.   6.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   0.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           4.   9.  13.  16.  19.  17.  10.  -1. -12. -21. -27. -29.

  ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013   HUMBERTO 09/11/13  00 UTC **
          ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.0 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  11.2 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  80.8 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  52.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   3.0 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
D200 (10**7s-1)       :  79.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C:  93.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    35% is   3.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    23% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    14% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013   HUMBERTO 09/11/2013  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      3(  3)       5(  8)       7( 14)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
115
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Latest hurricane formations - LawKat, 8/17/2013, 5:32 pm
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