A mess of a forecast
Posted by Gambit7 on 8/31/2019, 7:33 pm
Hi guys. Been a while. Luckily my folks are no longer living in Marsh or Grand Bahama, but I digress.

I'm not so certain about the last NHC track. I can't be the only one a bit leery of it, for a variety of reasons. The storm is showing more westerly movement than predicted, and is also stronger (riding lower on the isobaric lines). Beyond that, staring at WV, I don't yet see the window for Dorian to slip north, made worse by the lingering Low to the SW. It's a helluva mess of an atmosphere across the continental US + mid-atlantic. It's a wonder the models can make sense of it all in any way.

Beyond that, yesterday's models were garbage. Flat out. Junk. The right data didn't even make it into them for most of the day. I expected today's to be better but we need this next GIV flight to bear real fruit. It's confusing otherwise. Meanwhile Dorian rides that high like it should. In the back of my mind I've been using the Euro near term (because it has Dorian correctly placed at landfall in the islands), but take the newer trough orientations in the US models into account. If you do that, it creates problems for Florida.

I DO see a gap in the WV but it's not like it is racing towards the islands, and the orientation of the trough is very assymetric, hence this growing concern for the storm actually heading back to the coast after being picked up. The low to the SW? Might be fighting to create a better path as well.

It's a mess. What say you?
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A mess of a forecast - Gambit7, 8/31/2019, 7:33 pm
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