Re: A mess of a forecast
Posted by Gambit7 on 9/1/2019, 2:04 pm
The bumps west did occur in the models. And NHC did (recently) have to move their probability guidance west. Last night we calced Dorian turning about 40 miles further west than the prior Euro run. It's not false. What's true is, it might not really make a difference.

The aircraft were not as active early yesterday (and before that) as today. They switched to 3-hr runs eventually of course so now data streams in fast. Prior to that a few flights had to turn around apparently? And there were mechanical issues. NHC themselves complained that the models were very flip-floppy and the data not as sound. So that is not false. Given the storm being still 5 days out from friday's initial forecasting given fwd speed, this all kind of is par for the course. It's a tough game. The storm is close, but moving slow.

As of now. There's a TS warning in Broward and a cane watch to go along with the probability cones shifting to the west about 20miles. So everything said above is somewhat truth. In the end, it's just too close regardless.

Drives everyone batty. As for the 'gap' weakness, it indeed was not as pronounced in the last Euro. Still there, but not as easy to see. The storm will want to go poleward given the weakness but how wide that is and how far west the ridge actually goes seems to be tough to nail down exactly. I mean, how can they within 50miles? They can't. We need to be realistic. If you stare at the WV loop now it doesn't even look like it's eroding. Just have to assume it will.
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A mess of a forecast - Gambit7, 8/31/2019, 7:33 pm
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