Re: A mess of a forecast
Posted by jimw on 9/1/2019, 6:02 am
OK first of all Gambit said it is moving more west than expected FALSE for the past several days the models & track were showing a hit for FL the track into the NW Bahamas in fact has been well forecast. The second statement about the high altitude aircraft will change the forecast is also FALSE as they have been flying it all along & the model data adjust accordingly. Gambit also said they saw a gap in water vapor imagery but not racing towards islands. The reason for the expected slow turn north is because the steering high will weaken & just leave it sitting there until the trough creates a weakness & slow pull to the north. Had that upper low to the south been more directly south of Dorian there may have been more of a direct hit scenario for FL & a faster forward speed but that didnt happen. It will slow down give FL residents fits kind of like Floyd did but slowly head north at some point it's just going to be slow process & frustrating. If NHC honestly thought this was coming in hurricane watches & or warnings would be up in the same areas as the tropical storm watches & warnings...
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A mess of a forecast - Gambit7, 8/31/2019, 7:33 pm
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