Re: A mess of a forecast
Posted by Target on 9/1/2019, 2:41 pm
First thing I need to say is that I am just an amateur who is fascinated by hurricanes and if I irritate anyone it may be because I have never actually seen the damage done by a hurricane first hand. But that might lend to my objectivity.

It is my understanding that the HWRF and HMON models do the most calculations near the center of the cyclone where the more powerful forces in the storm are at work.

The CMC and the NAVGEM seem to fail at properly modeling the immediate risks of major hurricanes near landfall. But I would pay attention to the NAVGEM near land when/if Dorian is significantly disrupted by interacting with the Bahamas, but by then the forecast may be of little use.

What the HWRF and the HMON models may be seeing is something akin to a pivot of the track due to an artificial Eyewall Replacement Cycle forced by an interaction with small islands.

My guess is that most of the higher resolution models will show sharper changes in Dorian's path due to interactions with the small islands.

I have much to learn, and I welcome any criticism. I hope everyone finds reliable ways to stay safe.
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A mess of a forecast - Gambit7, 8/31/2019, 7:33 pm
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