Re: HWRF: Back in Florida Again...
Posted by Gambit7 on 8/31/2019, 11:11 pm
NHC admitted in the last discussion that indeed, the models (other than the HWRF) have shifted back to the west but more in-line with their current track so they are keeping to it for now. This is maddening. If that trend continues, who knows.

I'm not sold because simply, the storm will stall and so much needs to happen in very particular places and times. This is before considering ERC and wobbles that can shift the thing 100 miles or so. You can pretty much guarantee that Dorian interacting with the shallows of the Bahamas will be a factor. The eye will become unstable and move around a lot.

Certainly seems like NHC is getting a bit nervous; this storm is just moving too slowly to be safe.
And you're talking about picking up a stalled storm (that could stall in a wide margin) by an assymetrical trough 2+ days from now. With a low to the SW as well. I don't like it.
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A mess of a forecast - Gambit7, 8/31/2019, 7:33 pm
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