Re: August 25th - 38th latest (latest since 2006)
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/26/2013, 2:20 am
Things do seem to be a little more active. We'll have to see how the models do for consistency.

Around 11N 52W is starting to look interesting this morning:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/catl.html

An earlier ASCAT pass which partially caught it is a little inconclusive:
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATBData.php

The pass that as of posting this is the latest:
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_NOAA/zooms/WMBas100.png
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_NOAA/zooms/WMBas101.png

NHC analyses it in the NHC discussion as a 1013mb low. From the 0Z analysis:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_00Z.gif
(0Z image applies for next 6 hours, then check discussion for 6, 12, or 18Z image)

At 2:05am EDT on 8/26:

"AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N50W
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W."

Could sneak into the Carib. Steering:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

Plus, the NHC is watching off Africa over the next five days again.

Satellite:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/index.htm

You have to actually view the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Until they come up with some way to show graphically what might develop in five days (which they are planning to have at a later date, although I don't know how they would do both the 48 hour and 5 day), there is no yellow 0% circle, yet for the next five days there is a medium 30% chance.

The last one they did that for did not develop. We'll have to see how the next one does.

SAL:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitE&time

Of interest, I noticed CIMSS now tracks wave pouches:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
More on those here:
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FERNAND...LOCATED VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF
VERACRUZ.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON FERNAND ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=etwo

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
133
In this thread:
Latest hurricane formations - LawKat, 8/17/2013, 5:32 pm
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