Re: We Have Tropical Storm Irma
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/30/2017, 2:51 pm
I think this is simple, regardless of how early it is, which it is. It is going to take a powerful ridge to keep a storm as intense as this one is likely to get on a westward course all the way across the ATL. And then, that still will not be enough. There will need to be a secondary ridge that develops off the southeastern U.S. coast to ensure that the system gets slammed into the U.S. So what I advise is watching the water vapor loops to keep an eye on ridging across the Atlantic, and keeping tabs on buoy readings near the southeast U.S. coast to see how high (or not) the pressure readings are at those locations. Additionally, I would watch all model runs not so much to see where they send the storm itself, but rather to see how they forecast ridging across the ATL through the forecast period. Do you see very strong ridging in model runs across the more credible models (Euro particularly), and do you see that from run to run consistently over a period of days? If yes, be concerned. If not, more reason to take a breath. If we get powerful ridging all the way across the Atlantic, then this may indeed become a serious concern for the U.S. If not, then this system eventually will find that weakness and quite possibly go fishing in the end or become Bermuda's problem. When I lived in Stuart, FL, it was obvious early on that both Frances and Jeanne would be paying me a visit because all indications were that strong ridging would impose itself across the ATL, trapping both systems into a steady westward course. Bottom line for me is that I am deeply skeptical of any suggestions this early on that Irma will threaten the U.S., because it has been so rare in my lifetime to see powerful hurricanes stay on a westward course all the way across the basin, anomalous seasons like 2004 and 2005 aside. Most of them find a weakness and lift north or eventually out to sea.
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We Have Tropical Storm Irma - Gianmarc, 8/30/2017, 9:32 am
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