Re: We Have Tropical Storm Irma
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/30/2017, 5:10 pm
I hate doing this, but when there is talk of some runs of a long range model, I feel like you need to let people know the other runs it sometimes has. Take this single run from yesterday if you want too. (Saved image at 348 hours)

GFS has been in the Bahamas a few times. But the GFS has often shown this passing over Bermuda, even Canada at times. Sometimes it has it going between Bermuda and US. One time it seemed to nearly scrape the Outer Banks. And that one time above it made it into the Gulf off Tampa and made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida.

But now that the NHC has a track on it, I'm paying attention to that. The long range GFS is just awful. Yes, occasionally it will get something right, but anyone that looks at it will likely be panicked much more often than they need to be.

I like to see consistency from the Euro and GFS, over multiple runs. It's just too early to be too concerned yet. Just make sure you are prepared like you should be at the start of the season. We were going to wait until gas prices might go down, but we went ahead and got gas just in case. (not just in case a storm is somewhere around, but because a lot of refineries were impacted by Harvey)

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We Have Tropical Storm Irma - Gianmarc, 8/30/2017, 9:32 am
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