Re: One very possible scenario
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/31/2017, 11:53 am
I disagree with his characterization of what he is showing. I think this early on it is reckless to suggest that the storm will be "bearing down on the east coast" a week from now, especially since that is not what his own steering current animation shows. He is showing a strong ridge with a weakness at its Western periphery that would be just as likely to suck Irma out to sea as it would be to send Irma on a date with the Carolinas. Also, he repeatedly emphasizes that Irma may be a Cat 5 down the line as he cautions people in the Carolinas, but I do think it is important to note that never in the recorded meteorological history of the United States has a Cat 5 ever made landfall on the Carolinas. It possibly happened in 1821 when the Norfolk-Long Island Hurricane came ashore around Ocracoke but we likely never will know for sure because we can't rely on measurements recorded two centuries ago, and neither Hazel nor Hugo were Cat 5 at landfall. I think those are the storms that set the standard for extreme Carolina strikes. Of course if Irma came in at Cat 4 this distinction between Cat 4 and Cat 5 is somewhat trivial, especially as it relates to storm surge. But still, this guy's presentation is much too alarmist for my taste. At this early juncture it's best to scale back the drama and observe carefully and with reason.
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We Have Tropical Storm Irma - Gianmarc, 8/30/2017, 9:32 am
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