So... the conspiracy side of YouTube. And yet he has 75,0000 subscribers. Yikes. This guy posts this 15 hours ago and it already has a quarter of a million views.
This:
"NEW - Tropical Update: Models show BIG CAT 5 to form in Atlantic - East Coast Heading"
Is a scare tactic.
GFS constantly overdoes storms in the long range. On this particular instance, it seems like Irma will be very powerful, but that doesn't mean the GFS should still be followed closely in the long range. Yes, one could technically say it is "East Coast Heading" while a thousand miles out from a potential East Coast impact while the storm is heading in that direction, but no one knows what will happen after. We don't know if it will be that far north heading in that direction.
Antilles, Bahamas, Gulf, SE US, Bermuda and Canada all need to be watching this closely.
GFS...
18Z yesterday: West of Bermuda, hits Nova Scotia
0Z today: West of Bermuda, east of Cape Cod, hits Maine
6Z today: Hits North Carolina, scrapes along East Coast
12Z today: West of Bermuda, hits Nova Scotia
How is any of that helpful in the long range? All at least 10 days out in the GFS! It almost hit Tampa in a run of the GFS days ago!
Let's focus on the Antilles more first and try not to scare lots of people. We don't even know if it will impact there yet. Obviously people need to be watching this across the basin, but after Harvey, people everywhere are a little on edge and now is the time for calm.
It's very important to keep the Euro in mind. All this focus on the East Coast yet this excellent model consistently takes a southern solution. It doesn't mean it's going to happen, but at this point everyone along any stretch of the U.S. coastline, from East Coast to Gulf, need to be watching. (including Puerto Rico which the Euro takes the storm over/very near) And of course, throughout the Caribbean needs to be paying attention as well because they would be potentially impacted first, as well as Bermuda and Canada later. |