Re: We now have Tropical Storm Michael
Posted by James g on 10/7/2018, 4:05 pm
I just looked at a mid level water vapor loop of the eastern US, and sure enough, the mid level water vapor flow over Ga and the Carolinas has already backed to the SE, and is no longer coming from the east. I have not looked at the upper WV flow, but I am assuming that flow is similar to the mid level trajectory.
Given that I do not see the pronounced multi layered easterly flow that I was prevalent yesterday,and am instead seeing a SE WV flow into the SE US, I am not at all so confidant of my earlier predictions.
It does look as this storm will be more of a problem for points east of Fort Walton Beach.
That said,I still would not be at all surprised to see Michael turn more NW towards the Pensacola area.

I am going to be away for a while and before I return, I am going to take a look at October TC tracks that are most common during building El Nino events. I seem to recall that during El Nino years, the eastern Gulf is more prone to be hit by TCs, particularly in October.
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We now have Tropical Storm Michael - Beachlover, 10/7/2018, 2:19 pm
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