I'm not trying to panic people, but people need to be prepared. I wanted to create a post so that people could talk about it since some might be afraid to mention it first.


This is probably going to be a major topic for perhaps the next few years, when either naturally it perhaps stops or lessens more due to a vaccine being available by perhaps next year. I've delayed bringing it up until now but I think it's time. As of Friday, February 28th, community spread is now suspected in California, Oregon and Washington state.

The name of the disease is "coronavirus disease 2019" (COVID-19). Before it got that name it was referred to as "novel coronavirus". The virus that causes the disease is called "severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2" (SARS-CoV-2).

I don't want to get into the politics of it here, but I do want to say that it's quite obvious the U.S. government wasn't ready for this. We were not ready in advance, we were not ready when it got here and we are not that much more prepared now than two months ago. Maybe in a week we will be a bit more prepared in terms of testing, but community spread may already be a lot more widespread by then. Some of the information that has come from elected and appointed officials is not accurate. Additionally, it was reported Thursday (February 27th) that the White House has instructed the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases to not say anything else without clearance. "The White House moved on Thursday to tighten control of coronavirus messaging by government health officials and scientists, directing them to coordinate all statements and public appearances with the office of Vice President Mike Pence, according to several officials familiar with the new approach." (From New York Times: https://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/pandemic/en/ ) That's all I want to say about that and let's not get into the blame for that here.

It is likely that the virus will be a pandemic. The World Health Organization (WHO) hasn't declared it yet, but some other countries are already acting as though it will be declared. I couldn't find specific guidelines from the WHO. I could only find something from 2010 from the WHO that was about influenza pandemics (but this is not influenza, this is a coronavirus):

"A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease.

An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges and spreads around the world, and most people do not have immunity. Viruses that have caused past pandemics typically originated from animal influenza viruses."

From: https://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/pandemic/en/

Again, this is not influenza. It's not definitive that it will be a pandemic, but it is seems likely.

It's going to likely spread everywhere, like the seasonal flu. Based on what is known now, this appears to be more contagious than the seasonal flu and might be up to about twenty times deadlier on average. In the U.S. the death rate is around 0.1% for the seasonal flu among those who get it. (Info about seasonal flu: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/how-fast-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/ ) Currently, worldwide, it is around 2% for coronavirus. (with varying death rates based on age and preexisting conditions which I'll discuss later) There are varying estimates at the moment. It is hoped that the true death rate might be lower because hopefully the number of cases is significantly higher. If someone doesn't present many symptoms, and doesn't get the test, they would not be among the cases. But that is not known yet.

In regard to being more contagious, this is a nice article from a month ago that gets a little technical:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/how-fast-and-far-will-new-coronavirus-spread/605632/
While it may be more contagious than the season flu, it doesn't necessarily mean it will infect more people than the seasonal flu does in a year. We don't know. The number of people that each infected person infects seems to be a little higher than it is with the seasonal flu. But with some countries taking drastic actions to try to contain the spread, perhaps it will not infect as many people as the seasonal flu does, or even come close.

There is not yet a vaccine for this new coronavirus. It would likely be sometime in 2021 before one might be available. Even though you here mention of some ready to be tested, testing takes a long time and if it works it will then take time to manufacture.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/why-reports-of-drugs-for-coronavirus-are-premature-quicktake
Or:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/where-are-we-in-the-quest-for-a-coronavirus-vaccine-and-drugs/2020/02/26/8a27c086-58a4-11ea-8efd-0f904bdd8057_story.html

The seasonal flu would be worse if there was no vaccine. Until there is a vaccine, this coronavirus will be worse than it would be if we had one. Even if this new coronavirus did lessen in the summer in the northern Hemisphere, which experts don't know if it will, it could still be bad in the Southern Hemisphere where it would be winter. When we have our winter here again, it could be just as bad then, or worse. We don't know. We don't know if this will act like the seasonal flu. There are cases in the Southern Hemisphere right now and I don't know what the spread is like there. But we can't count on this going away in a few months.



Some various links on coronavirus:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/
https://www.ready.gov/pandemic

In a case like this I hesitate to provide links to Wikipedia, but it is a good way to get information summarized for a wide variety of sources. Just make sure to verify with reliable sources that the information presented is accurate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019

You can hover your mouse over the little numbers next to various information which will allow you to see what the source is. Then you can visit the source to verify it. If you don't see a source for the information you see, be hesitant until you find it from a trusted source.



Pointing out some of the information from the Q&A on the WHO site:

"What are the symptoms of COVID-19?
The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Some patients may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat or diarrhea. These symptoms are usually mild and begin gradually. Some people become infected but dont develop any symptoms and don't feel unwell. Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment. Around 1 out of every 6 people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, are more likely to develop serious illness. About 2% of people with the disease have died. People with fever, cough and difficulty breathing should seek medical attention."



People should prepare for this.

Floridians and others in hurricane country know how to prepare for a hurricane. Food and medicine on hand. If something happens and a water pipe bursts and they don't have enough people working to fix it, you might need some water around.

In addition though, you should have things like hand sanitizer with high alcohol content. Have a lot of soap on hand. Start getting used to washing your hands thoroughly.

When and How to Wash Your Hands:
https://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/when-how-handwashing.html

Don't shake hands with people. Try to start avoiding close contact. Eventually, if not now, reduce going out to public places unless you have to. If you do, try to avoid people who are coughing. If you touch surfaces or people, do not then touch your hands to your face. That includes your mouth, nose and eyes.

Chances are, you have little chance of getting a mask at this point. Most especially, one that works well. You take a risk buying something online that may not work, may not get here anytime soon and will be extremely expensive due to price gouging.

China seized 31 million fake or inferior masks:
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-outbreak-fuels-china-black-market-supplies-110838226.html
And I see some online that are probably among some of those.

But wearing a mask isn't necessarily the best idea. Tips for wearing masks:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

There is a type of mask that seems to be recommended and 3M is working to create more:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/3m-ramps-up-n95-respirator-production-amid-global-coronavirus-outbreak.html

The best masks seems to be a N95 respirator. About:
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/personal-protective-equipment-infection-control/masks-and-n95-respirators

It's something that medical professionals need so they need to have priority in getting them and having the supplies they need.

Some say masks might be a bad idea because it may encourage you to touch your face more. You also have to fit it properly on your face. A lot of facial hair is a problem. If you don't properly put on and take off the mask, it might be worse. You may end up infecting yourself. A mask is recommended if you are taking care of someone that has the virus, but you have to be careful with it, wear it properly and only use it once. If you have the virus, then you should also wear one if you have to be around people, but of course try to isolate yourself from anyone. If you think you are sick with the virus, and need to see a doctor, you should try to call ahead in some cases before you go to warn them you're coming. That's more important right now because there are few cases still. Of course in an emergency, you can't do that. It kind of depends too on where we are talking about, like a doctor's office, urgent care or hospital. If an ordinary doctor, you probably definitely should. They might simply recommend somewhere to go to get tested once that becomes more clear as to where you can be tested. But obviously that is only if you aren't too sick. If you are sick, go to where you need to go. If you have insurance, you may want to know more about where you should go, whether it is not an emergency or even in the case where it might be more of an emergency. What is in and out of network with your plan.

I bought some hand sanitizer. I had some cleaning supplies already. You might want cleaning wipes and sprays perhaps. I have supplies of canned food from hurricane season. I have empty bottles I can fill with water if things become worse. If you have prescriptions, try to have the most supply that you can have. You will want to have some other non-prescription medication around too that you might need. Check to see if what you have is expired. Have soap, detergent, toothpaste, and other things you might need for a month to try to reduce how often you go out. I'm not sure how good gloves are. I do see that recommended in places, but you have to be careful taking them off.

Supplies of products are already reduced due to supply chain disruption. It's not just that you want to have what you need so you don't have to go out. Some of what you might want, or need, may not be available later. There are already serious disruptions at some of the ports, especially on the west coast of the U.S.

When shopping, use the cart wipes. Try not to touch what you don't have to. But keep in mind you are touching items that people stocked on the shelf. (I understand that is getting a little on the paranoid side.) You are touching the machine to pay by credit card. Maybe signing a pad. Or handling cash. Getting gas you have to touch various things, like the fuel nozzle. Maybe carry wipes with you or some sort of disinfectant. Maybe have some in the car. It's just so important that you don't touch your face. Maybe start pointing it out when a family member touches their face. They may not even realize it. I have glasses and I very often touch my face. I'm going to have to learn not to do that when I have to be out.

One thing I don't know how to handle is mail. When it gets a bit worse, we'll be washing our hands after touching it and keeping it isolated. Newspaper too if you get it. If you put out trash, someone may have touched the can. We have trucks that do it automatically, though not for yard waste if you have it in a can.

Door knobs, car doors, car keys, wallet, steering wheel and more you have to think about. I know this sounds a bit paranoid, and some of it is extreme, but it all depends on how bad things get. They are just things to keep in mind. Your phone too. Keep it clean with wipes or maybe don't bring it going out in some cases.

I have family members here and in other states that have preexisting conditions. Also some that due to their age makes them more likely to develop serious complications if they were to get it. (I have quite a few family members in their 70's and even two in their 90's) Older people, and people with preexisting conditions, are much more likely to develop serious complications. An article from 10 days ago talked about a Chinese study that had the death rate among those with confirmed cases at 14.8% for people over 80. 8% for people 70 to 79. 3.6% for 60 to 69. ( https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/coronavirus-is-more-fatal-in-men-than-women-major-study-suggests.html ) "In patients with no reported underlying conditions, the fatality rate dropped to 0.9%, according to the study." I don't know how much these numbers have changed, if at all.

Again, those percentages are the death rate among those testing positive. There might be many more that had such mild symptoms that they were never tested. That would mean the death rate would be lower. But we don't know to what extent that might be the case.

People at risk for hurricanes are used to preparing every year. This is a bit different, but hopefully people will prepare for this as well.



This is not influenza, but if you want to learn about the last pandemic which started, which was from 2009 to 2010, you can here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
Or pandemics in general:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic
Again, verify the sources of Wikipedia content.



I want to be accurate on things, and this may not be, but I did come across a story about the possibility of a dog in Hong Kong may have gotten the new coronavirus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/a-dog-in-hong-kong-tests-positive-for-the-coronavirus-who-confirms.html

"Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, the technical lead of WHO's emergencies program, said the canine tested 'weakly positive,' meaning low levels of the virus were found.

Hong Kong scientists aren't sure if the dog is actually infected or if it picked up the virus from a contaminated surface, she said."

We'll have to see if that is accurate. I didn't know until looking into that more that it seems like in rare cases, maybe exceptionally rare, you might be able to actually give your dog or cat the seasonal flu (influenza).

There is a mention here from 2018:
https://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/dog-flu-protect-mans-best-friend/story?id=52606103

"And while there is no indication the dog flu can cause human illness, dogs, as well as cats, can contract the human flu virus. Pet owners should distance themselves from their pets when sick, Glaser recommended.

'If you have the flu, don't kiss your dog,' she said."

The article is about canine influenza, something specific to dogs, but it mentions that at the bottom.

I didn't research it very much, but I see a little more here with some links to studies:
https://www.bustle.com/p/can-you-give-your-pet-the-flu-heres-what-vets-want-you-to-know-15869059