I hope everyone here is taking this seriously. I don't know how long it will be until the U.S. does the same, but I assume it won't be too long. I don't know what the long term strategy is in the U.S. I assume we are going to close most everything, aside from essential locations like grocery stores, pharmacies and some gas stations and banks. I guess some states might be the first to do it and then at some point the federal government mandates the recommendation that everyone stays home. I don't know if it will be a requirement or not.
It does seem likely that the death toll here could be significant. If it spreads like some countries like Germany and Australia have said it could, and other experts, the death toll could be in the hundreds of thousands in the U.S. without very aggressive action. It's not impossible that it could top a million in the U.S. within a year.
I was taking a look at the population demographics of the U.S.:
https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf
Based on 2010 U.S. census (obviously higher now):
Age 70 to 79:
16,595,961
Age 80 & up:
11,236,760
No one knows how widespread this will get before a vaccine might be available in 12 to 18 months. There have been various estimates from around the world, from experts and from countries giving estimates, based on what I assume they hear from experts. 20%, 50%, 70%. I hope we close everything down again and again as needed over that period. If we do, we might keep the death toll significantly lower. That percentage of people wouldn't get it. Life would be different for perhaps the next 2 years, but we would save a lot of lives. If everyone did it worldwide, it could save many tens of millions of lives worldwide, potentially over a hundred million.
I would assume many of the older people who get this show symptoms. I would assume younger people would be more likely to not have symptoms. I would assume that while the death rate based on early numbers from China might be high for younger age groups because they don't know the true number of cases, only the confirmed number, for older groups the death rate is likely to be more accurate.
For people 80 and over, the death rate was 14.8%. For 70 to 79, the rate was 8%.
You can see why it is exceptionally important to reduce the spread in the U.S. by whatever means we can. A few hundred thousand people getting it in the U.S. is very different from many tens of millions to 150 million or more.
Hospitals are likely going to get overwhelmed. Some likely would soon even if we were to shut everything down now, because people are infected and not yet showing symptoms. Some of them will be in the hospitals within a few weeks. If we don't soon shut everything down essentially, hospitals will get overwhelmed. They are not ready.
I have one family member looking at China. They think that since only 3,000 people died, and there is a billion people there, that we should do okay. I think a lot of people are like that. China forced people to stay home. I don't see the U.S. having a sort of martial law here, where it isn't asking, it's required. It would help, but Americans aren't going to accept that. It would likely have to be voluntary. But everything would essentially be closed if you did go out. If no one goes out, you reduce the spread dramatically, like China did. You might infect the family with you and medial workers if you were taken to the hospital, but the explosive spread stops. Then you are back to quarantining those who come into contact with those infected, being able to trace those cases for however long you can keep up. If it gets back to community spread, which is likely, you shut it all down again at some point. China is opening some things back up in the heavily impacted area, but they would likely shut it again if it got out of control again.
Then I also have current and former nurses in my family. They know what's coming.
France and Spain to Follow Italy Into Lockdown as Coronavirus Cases Soar:
https://time.com/5803206/france-spain-lockdown-coronavirus/
Louisiana and Georgia postpone election primaries:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/politics/georgia-presidential-primary-coronavirus/index.html
Spain impose nationwide lockdown due to virus, closes all stores except groceries and pharmacies
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/14/spain-declares-state-of-emergency-due-to-coronavirus.html
Taco Bell might close their dining rooms and only have pickup and delivery:
https://twitter.com/tacobell/status/1238977599449120768
It might not be long before all restaurants simply close. They might switch to this some first.
Trump tests negative for coronavirus according to the White House:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/politics/trump-press-conference-coronavirus/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-14-20-intl-hnk/
- Spanish PMs wife tests positive for coronavirus
- Israel further tightens coronavirus restrictions, limits gatherings to 10 people
- Spanish Prime Minister announces tighter restrictions on travel
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced at a news conference Saturday that people in Spain are banned from leaving their houses with the exception of:
- Going to work
- Buying food or essential supplies
- Going to a hospital
- Supporting an elderly person or a minor under their care
If people do leave their houses for any of those exceptions, they must go out by themselves, Sanchez said. |