I was watching the futures all night when they halted at 5% down. Treasury yields all down below 1%, where we're seeing some record lows on that. This is going to be a very unprecedented period for the financial markets and the economy. No one knows what the long term economic impact will be. We'll see it stabilize after this is over in a year or two, sooner depending if things go better. Some companies are not going to survive, especially some small businesses. Some companies are going to restructure during this. There will probably be a lot of job losses. Until this is all done, maybe a year or two from now, things are going to be very rocky. The Fed will probably cut to 0% at some point and we'll probably see some economic stimulus of some sort eventually, but things are just going to be bad for awhile. It's just perfect that Russia decided now was the perfect time for a price war on oil.
The latest tweets from the president are comparing this to the flu, which does see more deaths in a season from where we are now. A whole lot more deaths. But that's because we're in that period where things are about to skyrocket. We're on course to be as bad as Italy, then much worse, and he doesn't get it. It's definitely very possible that the number of deaths won't be as bad as the flu, but that's if we do something. I'm hoping that local government and state governments will continue to take the lead. We can't count on a federal response. When it gets to the point where Italy was, we just don't know what the decision is going to be from government officials. It will probably be state's making some calls, starting with Washington state getting more aggressive. New York City might also need to take some aggressive actions earlier on too.
It starts off slow. 1 person might infect 2. Those 2 infect 4 more. Those 4 infect 8 more. Those 8 infect 16 more. That't just an example that may be low or high depending on the rate of this particular virus. But at some point those numbers get very large. And you probably had multiple instances of people bringing it here to different parts of the country. And it has been spreading unknown in Washington state for seven weeks. Who knows to what extent in other places as well over weeks. We're about to get to where the number starting growing and the average person starts to finally get that there is a problem. If they don't individually understand what's happening, maybe the market might be a wake up call now as to something is wrong. Honestly, I was shocked the market held out as stable as it was for so long. I thought it would have crashed a few weeks earlier. The market hates uncertainty and it was shocking to watch it initially not react.
Meanwhile, people still can't get tested that need to get tested in at least some areas. I think it's a lot of areas.
For those that haven't already, you really need to prepare for this.
There isn't a lot on the government's pandemic preparation page:
https://www.ready.gov/pandemic
But people need to prepare to not have to go out for a few weeks, or more, if things get bad. At some point you might need medicine or more food, but it's best to have at least a few weeks of food. Don't hoard at this point though, buying way more than needed. If everyone did that at this point we'd have supply issues. Some medications you can't get too far in advance. That's an issue my dad has had. But he was able to call the doctor and get them to extend it further than they usually issue some of his medication. I was clipping some digital coupons for my grandmother in Tennessee and the grocery store there had this at the top of the site:
"Due to high demand and to support all customers, we will be limiting the number of Sanitization, Cold and Flu related products to 5 each per order. Your order may be modified at time of pickup or delivery."
I would imagine that will become more and more common. |