I'm sorry to hear about your niece's husband. (https://canetalk.com/2020/03/1585505307_1582963243.shtml) I hope he's able to get the help he needs somewhere. I guess they've tried calling other hospitals? Of course now that he's showing symptoms of the virus that would be much more difficult.
But looking at abdominal pain:
https://www.google.com/search?q=coronavirus+abdominal+pain
It seems it might be possible, I have no idea, that it might not be his appendix, but the virus itself.
Sadly this is going to get worse and worse. And insanely, they keep talking about opening things back up in places. I hope the medical professionals prevail and convince the White House that if you aren't testing, you don't know the full extent of the problem. All these places that seem like they don't have cases? They do. Seems low? It's higher. They are growing exponentially. But it starts out smaller. And then you get to the big numbers eventually. But if you don't test enough, you may already be to bigger numbers. And if you open things back up, weeks later you will see a massive increase, above the increase you would have already seen, from a lot of new people infected.
People get infected, then it might be a week or more before they get symptoms, if at all. Then a few weeks of it getting worse in some cases. It could be weeks before someone needs to go to the hospital after infection. But you have to look ahead and realize that. When you lock things down, things will continue to be exponentially worse for weeks, even if you didn't get one new infection after the lockdown. Of course in reality, people will continue to get it even if they are being careful at a grocery store and other places like that. Forgetting to wash their hands after they tough an elevator button in an apartment building and not washing their hands. Maybe taking an elevator with someone that isn't showing symptoms. (1 person per elevator ride, two at most, but best one) Medical professionals will get it still. And of course there are going to be a lot of people that just don't take the precautions they need to now, or then. They are going to socialize with neighbors or family, thinking they would tell them if they had symptoms, ignoring the fact that most people are contagious and don't even know it. Or they just don't take this seriously. That's what makes this so dangerous.
We have a doubling rate for deaths of 3 days right now. That will not always be that high, but it does mean that we get to higher numbers quicker and quicker. I really hope this drives people to pay attention in places where they don't seem to have a lot. That just means they will peak later. Though if they open things back, up it will be sooner, and deadlier. You will get to the point where hospital have to make horrible decisions on who to save and who to not save. People who may have otherwise lived, but they didn't have the resources. (ventilators) Other people will die because hospitals will be full and people with other conditions may not be able to get the care they need, including if they need a ventilator. Medical professionals will be pushed to their absolute limits and obviously that stress will mean more mistakes. Not their fault, they will do the best they can. Not being able to change out personal protective equipment constantly does put people at risk, but there is no choice.
Dr. Fauci is now saying there could be millions of cases and 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the U.S. That's not a limit. I didn't see the full context of the clip, like what he was asked on CNN, but take that as more of a minimum. A lot of people trying to model this have deaths being perhaps of 1 to 2 million within a year. And again, this could happen in waves. By 18 months to 2 years, we have no idea what to expect. Until we have a vaccine that is widely available, and most people have it, this is going to be life. I know they don't talk about that as often as they need to, but people need to start getting in that mindset. I don't think the media is explaining exponential growth like they need to be. I've watched a lot of news, way too much, but I just don't get the sense that if I didn't look at all the information online, I wouldn't know that these numbers are going to go up very fast now. Again, the death rate isn't going to continue to double every 3 days. We need that to take longer and longer to double. Eventually, not double. But when it does double, 2,000 deaths becomes 4,000. Then 8,000. Then 16,000. Then 32,000. You heard New York's governor talk about locally how their doubling rate got longer, which is better, but you need to eventually stop doubling of course. (I haven't seen what the governor said today or maybe even yesterday, I don't have an update on that local doubling rate)
I wish the media would prepare people more for this. I know they don't want to scare people, but I think it's better if people are mentally prepared for what is happening. Children for sure, but adults as well. Some of these orders only lasted weeks or a month. Some things have been extended and some things are indefinite now, like the opening of Disney again. I don't think there should be any end dates on this. By Christmas, people are not going to have been out shopping for Black Friday. People won't be gathering for Thanksgiving or Christmas like they do. I'd rather people be prepared for that and if by some chance it gets a little better, then great. But in order to get to where China is, we would have to declare something nearly equivalent to martial law nationally. That's just not something that seems likely given the current administration. There could be a massive change as the death toll rises considerably, into the tens and hundreds of thousands, but at this point it doesn't seem likely. Everyone is going to need to be extremely careful until most people have a vaccine. And even after that, until the cases go down and we see it is working. That really could be 2 years. Only then might we have more normal air traffic again. We might have our borders closed until then, except for trade.
I'm still thinking about the hundreds of millions of people in places in Africa, countries that have densely populated cities, such as in India for example, poorer countries, countries without appropriate healthcare and refuge camps. It's going to be bad in countries like the U.S., but even more unimaginable elsewhere.
O/T - Off Topic
I have a reply limit on the forum for a few reasons. It gets a little cluttered when there is so many posts to one thread. In normal busy times, during a hurricane, it's best to start a new thread when the title needs to convey some kind of important information. One big reason is just in case something goes wrong and I have to manually do something. The system archives old threads and if something goes wrong during that, which I haven't seen in recent years, I would have to manually do something and doing that to 125 replies would take time. So the system doesn't have to do as much at one time, only the last 1,500 messages can be replied to. When it comes time to archive older posts, so they can't receive replies any longer, archiving a larger post takes more time. That time could mean more of a chance that something could go wrong during the process. |