I'm so sorry to hear that. I hope those sick are able to recover and that it doesn't spread further.
It's sad that so many people continue to ignore the pandemic by not wearing masks. A quarter of a million people have died in the U.S. as of today from it, with likely hundreds of thousands more to die by the time Spring starts. I don't think we're half way through this yet in terms of the death toll. Maybe not even a third of the way in this initial wave before the vaccine.
It didn't have to be this way. We could have been South Korea. We needed to lockdown early on, test more and get the results fast and have the numbers low enough so that contact tracing could have had a better chance. None of that happened like it needed to. At this point, the only chance of lockdown on a necessary scale would be when hospitals are full and decisions are made about who will get the chance to live and who will have to be left to die. It's already getting near that point in places, with desperate attempts by some people to find hospitals in other states. It's already terrible in some states and it's likely going to get considerably worse. Some states have a positivity rate over 50%. I don't think some states will ever lockdown, even when we get to the point like parts of Italy got to, where you have to decide who you will save. The cases are rising too fast to contact trace. Test results are still too slow for some too. We're at a point, or soon to be, where new cases are going to be limited by our testing capability. There are things we can all do. Wear a mask. Social distancing is needed, but in a lot of instances that isn't enough. In some instances it could travel dozens of feet, though how much you are exposed to also matters. Wearing a mask isn't a guarantee, but it is the best thing to do at all times. Finally they are stressing that it can also protect you too. (it was something they mentioned a little previously as well) I wish they stressed that more earlier than in the past few weeks when I think there was an actual study. Some people just aren't considerate enough (I'm being kind in that description) to wear a mask to help others when they think those people are the only ones they are doing it for.
I still can't believe people are talking about getting together for Thanksgiving and Christmas. It's already bad, but in the weeks and month after each of those holidays, things are going to get a lot worse. I don't know if we'll ever actually see something like 300,000 new cases in a day or more, but we might if there is enough testing capability by then. People should not be getting together, at all, except for essential things, like going to the grocery store, necessary doctor's appointments and for jobs they can't do at home.
By the time Biden takes over January 20th, I think it will be too late to enact much different. By then we will likely see some people being vaccinated, perhaps some healthcare workers even in December, but while very few will have the vaccine by then I just don't see anything that could be done. A large percentage of this country would rather die than wear a mask because they think it takes their freedom away. I assume they wouldn't drink and drive to help themselves, and others, not die and they don't complain about that with marches in the streets and threats of violence. A change in the leadership at the top at this point is not going to change the damage the soon to be previous guy did.
For many years, perhaps even decades, we will continue to see deaths from this, but after the vaccine is widely distributed, perhaps by the end of next year, we'll hopefully see a drastic reduction in that. (some say earlier in the year, but that seems too optimistic) It all depends on how long the vaccine lasts. We need a dramatic increase in the ability to create doses of the various vaccines. At the very least, I would assume we would need to vaccinate people every year, with most of the vaccines requiring two doses. They're talking about tens of millions per month they might have soon. We need half a billion to a billion doses per month for the world to keep on pace to vaccinate people every year. Would we still need two doses each year if it was something that lasted a year? All that is still to be determined in longer term studies. It would be nice if it lasted longer, but it might even be shorter, we don't know. People are getting too complacent due to being tired and hearing positive vaccine news. As they keep saying, vaccines don't save lives, vaccinations save lives. You can't go out partying knowing there's a vaccine. You don't have it yet. And even when people do get it, it's not 100%. Very early data on some says perhaps 95% effective after two doses. Maybe for at least one of the vaccines it was based upon two months of data after the second dose. Not sure about the other. But how effective is it after 6 months? A year? We won't know that until we actually see. Of course they'll be vaccinating people before we know how long the antibodies last and how effective it is over time as the antibodies decrease.
I learned last month that one of my dad's cousins died of the coronavirus. (probably in their 70s or 80s) I probably never met them. My grandmother had a lot of siblings, about a dozen, and I probably haven't met any of their relatives other than some family of a couple of her other siblings.
In the past several days there have been multiple cases among younger family members in my branch of the family tree. So far, older family members have avoided getting it but with it spreading so fast it's likely only a matter of time. All of these cases have been among family in Tennessee. I don't know how well some of my family have tried to protect themselves from the coronavirus. I don't have any idea about how the ones that already have it tried to protect themselves. Among my family there are people who are on both sides of the political spectrum. And I imagine that their views on the virus are dependent on that. Though I will say that even among the people I know who do treat science seriously, some of them are not always doing what they should to protect themselves. I also have a few family members in their mid or upper 90's going to things like either the store (with someone else, so they definitely didn't need to go with them) or to beauty salons (maybe that instance was last month). I won't get into too much detail in case some family members were to somehow read this post. But if they did, I would tell them it only takes being exposed to one person. Big group or small group, you could be infected in either. Some people do all they can and still get unlucky. The fewer risks you take, the less chance you have of getting it. It could be in as little as maybe 4 to 5 months before some of the most vulnerable people will have had a chance to be vaccinated and have some level of protection. As others also say, skip the holidays this year so that you can be around for all the other holidays. I have friends that aren't doing what they need to do either. You can't sometimes wear a mask and sometimes not. It doesn't work that way. You can't not go to some events, but go to other events. Yes, technically it's better than never wearing a mask and going to lots of events, but it's still being completely reckless and you are obviously exposing yourself unnecessarily. But some people are just never going to understand it. They put themselves and their families at risk, as well as friends, strangers and ultimately healthcare workers that might have to treat them.
I won't be doing anything until my dad gets vaccinated, and probably still won't until I can get vaccinated myself. I will probably still be wearing a mask for a year or more. It's going to take a massive effort, beyond what we're even doing now, to get the vaccine out to everyone around the world. We need to get herd immunity with a vaccine and it's going to take a long time to have enough vaccine to do that as well as to convince a heck of a lot of people that they need to get it when its available to them. And until we see the virus transmission get reduced around the world due to herd immunity from vaccinations, make it through another winter season when it is likely to be at its worst (meaning winter of 2021 into 2022) to see how we do and also see how long the vaccine's effectiveness is to know when we need to likely get it again, we won't really know when things can get back closer to what will be the new normal.
Until then, wear a mask and only do what we need to do around other people. Just basic kindness that could save hundreds of thousands of lives in the U.S. and potentially a million, or millions, around the world. |