Re: Projections via IHME modeling
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 4/1/2020, 1:40 am
"In locations without social distancing measures currently in place, we have assumed they will be in place within seven days of the last model update. If not, the number of deaths and burden on their hospital systems will likely be higher than the model predicts."

My state continues to not do enough. Some of the counties have done some stay at home orders, including mine, but overall, the numbers for Florida will likely be worse than that model. So many retired people here. And this is the range of the optimistic scenario...






Other things to note from the FAQ page:



Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?

Our model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some of the social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.



Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.
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